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Singapore 2026 GDP growth forecast: how MTI and IMF revisions caught up

Singapore's official 2026 growth forecast rose from 1.0-3.0% in November 2025 to 4.5-5.5% in August 2026, and the IMF now expects 5.0%. Actual growth averaged about 6% in the first three quarters, above every earlier forecast.

CapsWindowPublished: 29 October 2026

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Key takeaways

Singapore's official 2026 GDP growth forecast is 4.5-5.5%, set by MTI (now METI) on 11 August 2026. The IMF's October 2026 World Economic Outlook projects 5.0%. A new official forecast is due in November.
The official range has been raised twice since November 2025: from 1.0-3.0% to 2.0-4.0% in February, held in May, then lifted to 4.5-5.5% in August. The IMF moved from 1.8% (October 2025) to 3.5% (April 2026) to 5.0%.
Real GDP grew 6.4%, 6.2% and 5.4% year on year in the first three quarters of 2026, about 6.0% on average (CapsWindow calculation). The reasons given for the upgrades were AI-related demand and a Middle East energy shock that was less severe than feared.
As in Korea, forecasts trailed the data in 2026. Unlike Korea in 2025, Singapore's 2025 forecasts were also raised, from 1.5-2.5% in August 2025 to an actual 5.0%. Forecasts are conditional and quarterly figures are still being revised.

Singapore’s official forecast for 2026 GDP growth is 4.5-5.5%, raised from 2.0-4.0% on 11 August 2026 (MTI). The IMF’s October 2026 World Economic Outlook puts it at 5.0% (IMF). Both are well above where they started a year ago.

What is Singapore’s 2026 growth forecast now?

4.5-5.5%

Official forecast for Singapore's real GDP growth in 2026, set on 11 August 2026 by the Ministry of Trade and Industry, renamed the Ministry of Energy, Trade and Industry (METI) on 1 October

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) does not publish a numerical growth forecast. In its 14 October statement it said only that the economy’s positive output gap “is forecast to narrow through next year” and that “the government’s GDP growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 will be announced in November by METI” (MAS). Until then, the August range is the latest official figure.

How has the forecast changed since late 2025?

Every revision so far has been upward or flat. None was a cut.

Visual guide

How has the forecast changed since late 2025?

October 2025
Forecaster
IMF World Economic Outlook
2026 growth forecast
1.8%
What changed
first IMF projection for 2026 in this table
10 February 2026
Forecaster
MTI
2026 growth forecast
2.0-4.0%
What changed
raised
20 July 2026
Forecaster
IMF Article IV
2026 growth forecast
3.5%
What changed
unchanged
October 2026
Forecaster
IMF World Economic Outlook
2026 growth forecast
5.0%
What changed
raised

Selected entries from the table below. Its dates, units, definitions and limitations still apply.

Sources ↓

Date	Forecaster	2026 growth forecast	What changed
October 2025	IMF World Economic Outlook	1.8%	first IMF projection for 2026 in this table
21 November 2025	MTI	1.0-3.0%	first official range
10 February 2026	MTI	2.0-4.0%	raised
April 2026	IMF World Economic Outlook	3.5%	raised
25 May 2026	MTI	2.0-4.0%	held, “although downside risks have risen significantly”
20 July 2026	IMF Article IV	3.5%	unchanged
11 August 2026	MTI	4.5-5.5%	raised
October 2026	IMF World Economic Outlook	5.0%	raised

Sources: MTI releases of November 2025, February 2026, May 2026 and August 2026; IMF Statistical Appendix Table A2 for October 2025, April 2026 and October 2026; IMF Article IV. The IMF’s July 2026 update does not list Singapore separately, and CapsWindow could not confirm a January 2026 figure.

The midpoint of the official range went from 2.0% to 3.0% and then to 5.0% (CapsWindow calculation). The IMF figure nearly tripled, from 1.8% to 5.0%.

How fast has the economy actually grown in 2026?

Faster than every forecast made before August. Real GDP grew 6.4% in the first quarter, 6.2% in the second and 5.4% in the third, year on year (METI).

Quarter	Year on year	Quarter on quarter, seasonally adjusted	Earlier year-on-year estimate
3Q 2025	4.5%	1.9%	2.9% (advance estimate)
4Q 2025	5.7%	1.3%	6.9% (February 2026)
1Q 2026	6.4%	1.4%	6.0% (May 2026)
2Q 2026	6.2%	1.5%	5.7% (advance estimate)
3Q 2026	5.4% (advance)	1.1%	5.4% (advance estimate)

The first two columns are the figures as published on 14 October 2026. The last column shows an earlier estimate of each quarter, from the MTI releases listed above and the MAS statement of 27 July (MAS). Both earlier 2026 quarters were later revised up; the third quarter has not been revised yet.

Averaged over the first three quarters, growth was about 6.0% (CapsWindow calculation, weighting each quarter by its 2025 level in SingStat M014811). On the same arithmetic, the fourth quarter would need only about 0.3% year-on-year growth for the full year to reach 4.5%, and about 4.1% to reach 5.5%. This is arithmetic on published data, not a forecast; the 2025 levels may themselves have been revised in October.

Why were the forecasts raised?

MTI’s releases give the reasons. The table quotes or summarises what each release said.

Release	Reasons stated
November 2025	Growth in major economies expected to ease in 2026 “as the US tariffs worked their way through the global economy” (as described in the February release)
February 2026	Strong fourth-quarter momentum “due in large part to the AI investment boom”, expansionary fiscal policy in the US, Germany and Japan, and easy financial conditions
May 2026	Range held, but the outlook “deteriorated with the onset of the US-Israel-Iran conflict”; a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz drove up energy and input costs, while AI-related demand “remained robust”
August 2026	A better-than-expected first half, “acceleration in global AI-related capital expenditure”, and a Middle East shock “less severe than initially feared” as inventories and substitution capped energy prices

The same releases show the split inside the economy. In the first quarter, higher crude oil prices and shortages “contributed to contractions” in the fuels and chemicals segment of wholesale trade and in the chemicals cluster of manufacturing. In the second quarter, manufacturing grew 12.9% year on year, led by electronics and precision engineering. In the third quarter, manufacturing slowed to 7.5% and contracted 0.9% from the previous quarter.

MAS’s October statement points to the same two forces: “AI-related investments globally are sustaining strong industrial production and trade”, while “energy commodity prices have risen anew” since September.

Does Singapore show the same pattern as Korea?

In 2026, yes. In 2025, the pattern held for Singapore but ran the other way in Korea.

	Korea (Bank of Korea)	Singapore (MTI)
First forecast for 2026	1.8% (November 2025)	1.0-3.0% (November 2025)
Latest forecast for 2026	3.3% (August 2026)	4.5-5.5% (August 2026)
2026 so far	quarterly forecasts of 0.9%, 0.2% and 0.3% against actual 1.8%, 0.6% and 1.0% (quarter on quarter)	6.4%, 6.2% and 5.4% year on year against a full-year range of 1.0-3.0% at the start
2025	forecast cut from 1.9% to 0.8-0.9%; actual 1.1%	forecast raised from 1.5-2.5% (August 2025) to around 4.0% (November); actual 5.0%

Korea figures as reported on 27 October 2026 (Kyunghyang Shinmun). Singapore 2025 figures from the November 2025 and February 2026 releases.

The observation that “forecasts follow the data late” fits Singapore in both years. In each case the official range moved toward the outturn only after strong quarters had been published. Korea in 2025 is the reminder that the lag works in both directions: there, forecasts were cut as weak quarters arrived and the outcome ended up a little above the lowered number.

Two years of data from one country cannot show that this is a rule. The IMF’s 2025 path is another example: it projected 2.2% for Singapore in October 2025 (IMF), and the April 2026 edition records 5.0%.

A single forecast is a weak basis for planning. The future need calculator projects a Singapore dollar amount forward under several past money-supply trends, so you see a range of outcomes rather than one number.

Estimate a future amount in Singapore dollars →

How should these forecasts be read?

Growth forecasts are conditional on assumptions about oil prices, tariffs and global AI investment that the forecasters state in their releases. Each edition is prepared on a different date with different data, and MTI publishes a range while the IMF publishes a single number. The third-quarter 2026 figure is an advance estimate based mostly on July and August data, and earlier quarters have been revised by as much as 1.6 percentage points (3Q 2025: 2.9% in the advance estimate, 4.5% now). The fourth-quarter arithmetic in this note uses 2025 levels published on 11 August. Nothing here predicts the forecast METI will announce in November.

Questions & answers

What is Singapore's GDP growth forecast for 2026?

The official forecast is 4.5-5.5%, set by MTI (now the Ministry of Energy, Trade and Industry) on 11 August 2026. The IMF projects 5.0% in its October 2026 World Economic Outlook. METI is due to announce updated forecasts for 2026 and 2027 in November.

Why did Singapore raise its 2026 forecast?

MTI cited stronger-than-expected AI-related investment and exports, a first half that beat expectations, and a Middle East energy shock that was less severe than first feared. In May it had held the range at 2.0-4.0% because of downside risks from the US-Israel-Iran conflict.

How much growth does the fourth quarter need to reach the official range?

Very little for the bottom of the range. Using the 2025 quarterly levels and the published growth rates for the first three quarters, full-year growth of 4.5% needs about 0.3% year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter, and 5.5% needs about 4.1% (CapsWindow calculation). This is arithmetic, not a forecast, and revisions can change it.

Source

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