Money keeps growing — is buying assets now always better? 45 years of the SGD
The SGD went from 2.0812 to 1.2763 per USD between January 1981 and August 2026, so holding cash did not always lose. Four global rate regimes show which asset won.
Does more money always mean assets go up?
Over long spans money supply and asset prices have moved in the same direction, but there have been decade-length stretches where they did not, and Singapore holds one of the clearest counterexamples to the idea that cash always loses. In January 1981 the Singapore dollar was quoted at 2.0812 per US dollar. In August 2026 it was 1.2763. The currency strengthened over 45 years, so an SGD balance bought more US dollars at the end of that span than at the start.
2.0812 → 1.2763
SGD per USD, January 1981 to August 2026
That does not mean SGD cash held its purchasing power at home. Singapore’s CPI (2010=100) rose from 84.58 in January 2000 to 135.89 in April 2026, a factor of 1.607. Cash won against one benchmark and lost against another, which is the whole point: the answer depends on what you measure against.
Singapore Department of Statistics · Consumer Price Index
When the rate regime changes, does the winning asset change?
It does, and the clearest record is in US money and gold. The table below uses US M2 in USD billion and gold in USD per troy ounce, at the stated months.
When the rate regime changes, does the winning asset change?
- 1971-01 → 1980-01
- US M2
- 633.0 → 1,482.7
- Gold
- 38 → 675
- Note
- Gold rose far faster than money
- 1980-01 → 2000-01
- US M2
- ×3.147
- Gold
- ×0.421
- Note
- Nominal −57.9%; US CPI ×2.171, so real −80.6%
- 2008-12 → 2021-12
- US M2
- ×2.621
- Gold
- ×2.194
- Note
- Money and gold moved together again
- 2021-12 → 2026-07
- US M2
- ×1.080
- Gold
- ×2.464 (to 2026-08)
- Note
- Gold moved while money growth slowed
Selected entries from the table below. Its dates, units, definitions and limitations still apply.
| Period | US M2 | Gold | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1971-01 → 1980-01 | 633.0 → 1,482.7 | 38 → 675 | Gold rose far faster than money |
| 1980-01 → 2000-01 | ×3.147 | ×0.421 | Nominal −57.9%; US CPI ×2.171, so real −80.6% |
| 2008-12 → 2021-12 | ×2.621 | ×2.194 | Money and gold moved together again |
| 2021-12 → 2026-07 | ×1.080 | ×2.464 (to 2026-08) | Gold moved while money growth slowed |
The 1980 to 2000 stretch is the one to sit with. Paul Volcker took office in August 1979, and the monthly average federal funds rate peaked at 19.10% in June 1981. Money supply more than tripled over those twenty years, and the asset most associated with money printing lost four fifths of its real value.
What does Singapore’s own data say?
Singapore’s distinctive feature is the policy framework. MAS does not target an interest rate. It manages the trade-weighted Singapore dollar, the S$NEER, within a policy band, and lets domestic rates be set largely by global conditions. A global rate regime therefore arrives in Singapore through the currency first.
| Series | Period | Change |
|---|---|---|
| CPI (2010=100) | 2000-01 → 2026-04 | 84.58 → 135.89, ×1.607 |
| CPI (2010=100) | 2000-01 → 2010-01 | ×1.159 |
| CPI (2010=100) | 2010-01 → 2020-01 | ×1.170 |
| SGD per USD | 1981-01 → 2021-12 | 2.0812 → 1.3634 |
| SGD per USD | 2021-12 → 2026-08 | 1.3634 → 1.2763 |
| M2 (SGD million) | 2021-07 → 2026-06 | 710,274 → 892,401, ×1.256 |
Read together, the rows say something narrower than the usual story. Over 26 years the consumer basket rose about 1.6 times, which is real erosion but a slow one, and over 45 years the currency itself appreciated against the US dollar. A Singapore reader cannot start from the assumption that money debasement is the default setting.
The Singapore M2 series used here begins only in July 2021, so no long-run Singapore M2 argument can be made from it: 2021-07 to 2026-06 gives ×1.256, and 2021-12 to 2026-06 gives ×1.217. The global rows above use US data and are not a substitute for a domestic series. M2 and the CPI are measured on different bases, and neither describes a household's own spending or portfolio. The multipliers are ratios between two stated months, not annualised returns, and they exclude transaction costs, spreads, taxes and the cost of borrowing.
What is observed right now?
At its meeting on 29 July 2026 the FOMC kept the target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, with three members dissenting in favour of a hike. That is an observation, not a signal about the next move. Because MAS operates on the exchange rate rather than a policy rate, the effect of that setting shows up in Singapore as a currency and funding-cost question rather than as a local rate decision.
Federal Reserve · FOMC calendars and statements
So is buying sooner still better?
Only if the asset outpaces what the money costs you while you hold it. Buying earlier is usually funded by borrowing or by giving up a deposit rate, and in Singapore both are priced off global conditions that MAS lets through while it steers the currency. That funding cost is the break-even the asset has to clear, which is why the same purchase can be a good decision in one rate regime and a poor one in another. The history above cannot tell you which regime you are in. It can tell you that the gap between money growth and asset prices has stayed open for years at a time, and that in Singapore’s case the currency itself has been on the other side of the usual assumption.
Questions & answers
Does holding cash always lose value?
Not universally. Measured against the US dollar, the Singapore dollar went from 2.0812 in January 1981 to 1.2763 in August 2026, so SGD cash gained against USD over that span. Against Singapore's own consumer basket the CPI still rose 1.607 times from January 2000 to April 2026.
Is gold a reliable hedge against money growth?
It depends on the rate regime. From 1980-01 to 2000-01 US M2 rose 3.147 times while gold fell to 0.421 times its level, and from 2008-12 to 2021-12 US M2 rose 2.621 times while gold rose 2.194 times.
Why does this article not make a long-run argument from Singapore M2?
The Singapore M2 series used here starts only in July 2021. It rose from 710,274 to 892,401 SGD million by June 2026, a factor of 1.256, which is too short a window to support a decades-long claim.
How do US interest rates reach Singapore if MAS does not set a policy rate?
MAS manages the trade-weighted S$NEER within a policy band instead of targeting an interest rate. A foreign rate regime therefore shows up in Singapore mainly through the exchange rate and through domestic funding costs that follow it.
Source
- Monetary Authority of Singapore · Monetary policy framework ↗
- Monetary Authority of Singapore · Monthly Statistical Bulletin ↗
- Singapore Department of Statistics · Consumer Price Index ↗
- Federal Reserve · H.6: M1 / M2 ↗
- FRED · Federal Funds Effective Rate (FEDFUNDS) ↗
- Federal Reserve · FOMC calendars and statements ↗
- CapsWindow · Data & methodology ↗