Notes · English

Gold in Hong Kong dollars: about 26% below the January peak, almost the same as in US dollars

Gold has fallen about 26% from its 29 January 2026 record in US dollars, and about the same in Hong Kong dollars, because the peg keeps the exchange rate almost fixed. How the fall compares with past gold bear markets in HKD, how long recoveries took, and how far gold is still above 2019.

CapsWindowPublished: 23 October 2026

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Key takeaways

Gold reached a reported record of US$5,626.80 an ounce on 29 January 2026. On 21 October the price was about US$4,132, roughly 26.6% lower. In Hong Kong dollars the fall is about 26.2%, from about HK$43,916 to HK$32,431 an ounce, using the BIS exchange rates for 29 January and 20 October.
The two numbers are close because the Hong Kong dollar moved only about 0.6% against the US dollar over the period. On monthly averages, gold fell 11.8% in HKD from February to August 2026 against 12.1% in USD; at the July low it was 18.6% below the February average, against 18.9% in USD.
Past bear markets in HKD look much like those in USD: the 2011 peak was followed by a 39.6% fall and took 106 months to recover; the 2020 peak by a 14.4% fall and 32 months. The 1980 peak cannot be measured in HKD with this site's data, which starts in 1981.
Even after the fall, the August 2026 monthly average in HKD was about 3.0 times the December 2019 level. This note describes past prices and does not forecast gold.

Gold’s record run ended in late January. Since then, the price has given back about a quarter of its value in US dollars. For Hong Kong holders the arithmetic is almost the same, which is itself the main local story: under the peg, a gold price in US dollars is very nearly a gold price in Hong Kong dollars.

How far has gold fallen in Hong Kong dollars?

About 26%, measured from the January record. Gold reached a reported US$5,626.80 an ounce on 29 January 2026 (Global Economic, citing New York futures) and traded around US$4,132 on the morning of 21 October (Yahoo Finance). Converted with BIS daily exchange rates, that is a fall from about HK$43,916 to HK$32,431 an ounce.

−26.2% in HKD

Gold from the reported 29 January 2026 record (US$5,626.80 × 7.8047) to about US$4,132 on 21 October × 7.8487 (BIS rate for 20 October, the latest available). In US dollars: −26.6%. CapsWindow calculation; daily prices are press-reported and approximate.

Visual guide

How far has gold fallen in Hong Kong dollars?

Change

Daily, US$ per ounce (reported)−26.6%
Daily, HK$ per ounce−26.2%
Monthly average, US$ per ounce−12.1%
Monthly average, HK$ per ounce−11.8%
Monthly average low, HK$ per ounce−18.6%

Shared linear scale from zero. Negative values extend left. Selected entries from the table below. Its dates, units, definitions and limitations still apply.

Sources ↓

Measure	Peak	Latest	Change
Daily, US$ per ounce (reported)	5,626.80 (29 Jan)	about 4,132 (21 Oct)	−26.6%
Daily, HK$ per ounce	about 43,916	about 32,431	−26.2%
Monthly average, US$ per ounce	5,020 (Feb)	4,411 (Aug)	−12.1%
Monthly average, HK$ per ounce	39,237.8 (Feb)	34,593.3 (Aug)	−11.8%
Monthly average low, HK$ per ounce	39,237.8 (Feb)	31,935.2 (Jul)	−18.6%

Monthly figures are CapsWindow calculations from World Bank monthly gold prices multiplied by the monthly average HKD/USD rate (FRED EXHKUS). This site’s monthly data runs to August 2026; the World Bank’s September average of US$4,319 is not yet included.

Why is the Hong Kong dollar figure so close to the US dollar figure?

Because the exchange rate barely moves. The Linked Exchange Rate System holds the Hong Kong dollar between 7.75 and 7.85 per US dollar. From February to August 2026 the monthly average rate went from 7.8163 to 7.8425, a 0.3% weakening of the Hong Kong dollar, so the HKD fall (−11.8%) was slightly smaller than the USD fall (−12.1%).

Currencies that float can change the picture a great deal. When a currency weakens against the US dollar during a gold sell-off, gold falls less in that currency; when it strengthens, gold falls more. In Hong Kong the difference is a few tenths of a percentage point at most. A Hong Kong holder is, in practice, exposed to the US dollar gold price.

The fall has coincided with a return of US rate rises. On 14 October, after US inflation came in at 3.7%, gold fell below US$4,100 as traders revived bets on an October Fed hike, according to FXStreet. Hong Kong’s Base Rate moves with the Fed’s range by formula, so the same rate pressure applies locally.

How does this compare with past gold bear markets?

So far it is shallower than the two long bear markets of recent decades, on monthly averages. The table measures each fall from the monthly peak to the lowest monthly average before the price regained that peak.

Peak month	Fall in US$	Months to recover (US$)	Fall in HK$	Months to recover (HK$)
January 1980	−62.1% (to July 1999)	316	not available	—
September 2011	−39.3% (to December 2015)	106	−39.6%	106
August 2020	−15.5% (to October 2022)	32	−14.4%	32
February 2026	−18.9% (to July 2026)	not yet recovered	−18.6%	not yet recovered

CapsWindow calculations from World Bank monthly averages and FRED HKD/USD. This site’s HKD/USD series starts in January 1981, so the 1980 peak cannot be converted; no values are filled in. In both recent episodes the recovery month was the same in HKD as in USD: July 2020 and April 2023.

Small differences do appear. From September 2011 to December 2015 the Hong Kong dollar strengthened slightly, from 7.7943 to 7.7507 per US dollar, so the fall was 0.3 points deeper in HKD. From August 2020 to October 2022 it weakened from 7.7502 to 7.8498, so the fall was about a point smaller. Neither changed how long it took to get back.

How far above 2019 is gold still?

About three times higher. The December 2019 monthly average was HK$11,542.9 an ounce; August 2026 was HK$34,593.3, or 3.0 times as much (2.98 times in US dollars). Against December 2024, at HK$20,584.0, the August 2026 price was still about 68% higher.

Month	Gold (US$, monthly average)	HKD per USD	Gold (HK$ per ounce)
December 2019	1,479	7.8045	11,542.9
December 2024	2,648	7.7734	20,584.0
December 2025	4,309	7.7808	33,527.5
February 2026	5,020	7.8163	39,237.8
July 2026	4,073	7.8407	31,935.2
August 2026	4,411	7.8425	34,593.3

To see what a Hong Kong dollar amount would have bought in gold at different dates, use the gold calculator.

Open the gold calculator →

Monthly averages and daily prices answer different questions and are not mixed in any calculation here. The reported record of US$5,626.80 and the 21 October figure of about US$4,132 are futures prices from press reports; other sources show slightly different daily highs. The 21 October gold price is converted at the BIS rate for 20 October, the latest available. These are international benchmark prices: retail prices for gold bars or jewellery in Hong Kong include premiums and making charges and are quoted per tael, and this note did not verify a current local quote. Explanations of why gold fell are taken from press reports. Nothing here predicts future gold prices or how long a recovery would take.

Questions & answers

Why has gold fallen almost exactly as much in Hong Kong dollars as in US dollars?

Because the Linked Exchange Rate System keeps the Hong Kong dollar between 7.75 and 7.85 per US dollar. Between 29 January and 20 October 2026 the BIS rate moved from about 7.805 to 7.849, a change of about 0.6%. That small weakening of the Hong Kong dollar trimmed the fall in HKD to about 26.2%, against about 26.6% in USD.

How long did past gold bear markets take to recover?

On World Bank monthly averages, the January 1980 peak took 316 months to regain in US dollars, the September 2011 peak 106 months and the August 2020 peak 32 months. In Hong Kong dollars the 2011 and 2020 recoveries took the same 106 and 32 months. The current fall, from February 2026, had not recovered by August 2026, the latest month in this site's data.

Why is the fall smaller on monthly averages than on daily prices?

A monthly average smooths out the highest and lowest days. February 2026 averaged US$5,020 an ounce, well below the reported 29 January peak of US$5,626.80, and the August average included a rebound. Daily figures in this note come from press reports and should be read as approximate.

Source

Calculators

Gold price comparisonGold price comparison · HKD

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