Global bond yields 2026: US, UK, Germany and Japan at multi-year highs. Where is Malaysia?
US, UK, German and Japanese 10-year yields have reached their highest levels in 15 to 30 years in 2026. Malaysia's 10-year MGS yield rose too, but by about half as much, and only to a three-year high.
Long-term government bond yields in the largest economies have climbed to levels not seen in 15 to 30 years. For Malaysian savers and borrowers, the useful question is how much of that wave reached Malaysia. The answer: some of it, later and smaller.
How far have the big four risen?
Each country’s own official yield curve, ten-year maturity.
How far have the big four risen?
Latest
Shared linear scale from zero. Selected entries from the table below. Its dates, units, definitions and limitations still apply.
| Country | Early January | Latest | 2026 high | Highest since |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 4.19% (2 Jan) | 5.28% (7 Oct) | 5.31% (5 Oct close) | May 2002 |
| United Kingdom | 4.517% (2 Jan) | 5.337% (6 Oct) | 5.383% (28 Sep) | July 2007 |
| Germany | 2.96% (2 Jan) | 3.55% (7 Oct) | 3.69% (28 Sep) | April 2011 |
| Japan | 2.111% (5 Jan) | 3.111% (7 Oct) | 3.111% (7 Oct) | 1996 |
| South Korea (comparison) | 3.386% (2 Jan) | 4.395% (8 Oct) | 4.600% (15 Sep) | October 2022 |
Sources: US Treasury, Bank of England, Bundesbank, Ministry of Finance Japan.
Thirty-year bonds set longer records
| Country | 30-year | Context |
|---|---|---|
| United States | 5.67% (7 Oct) | Highest since 2002 |
| United Kingdom | above 6% intraday (1 Oct) | First time since 1998, as reported |
| Germany | 4.03% (29 Sep and 1 Oct) | Highest since April 2011 |
| Japan | 4.168% (6 Oct) | Highest since first issued in 1999 |
Why are long yields rising?
| Force | Evidence |
|---|---|
| Oil and inflation | The war with Iran began on 28 February 2026. Brent futures went from about US$70 before the war to an intraday US$126.41 on 30 April, and were around US$105 on 8 October. US CPI was 3.4% in August, UK 3.1%, euro area 3.8% in the September flash estimate. |
| Bond supply | Germany plans about €525.5 billion of issuance in 2026, a record. Japan’s new JGB issuance for FY2027 is about ¥40 trillion, up from ¥32.7 trillion (The Edge, citing Bloomberg). UK gilt issuance is £246.2 billion for 2026-27. The US deficit was about US$2 trillion in the first 11 months of FY2026. |
| Term premium | The New York Fed’s ACM 10-year term premium rose from 0.455% on 29 June to 0.962% on 5 October, the highest since July 2014. |
Policy rates also rose in several places: the Federal Reserve to 3.75-4.00% on 16 September, the ECB deposit rate to 2.50%, and the Bank of Japan to 1.25%. But the long end rose more than the short end, which points to the second and third forces as well as the first.
France overtakes Italy (updated 19 October)
Since this note was first published, France has become the euro area’s outlier. Its 10-year yield closed at 4.79% on 16 October, 137 bp above Germany’s, after touching 4.994% intraday on 2 October, the highest since 2002 (Reuters via Boursorama).
| Date | France 10-year | Germany 10-year | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 September 2026 | 4.24% | 3.39% | 85 bp |
| 2 October 2026 | 4.90% | 3.43% | 147 bp |
| 16 October 2026 | 4.79% | 3.42% | 137 bp |
Source: ideal-investisseur, daily closes from the Banque de France and Bundesbank. Italy’s 10-year was around 4.50% on 16 October, so France now borrows at a higher rate than Italy. The German values in this table are benchmark-bond closes and differ from the Bundesbank yield-curve values in the first table above (3.55% on 7 October); the two series should not be mixed.
The ECB’s deposit rate is the same 2.50% for France, Germany and Italy, so the widening is not about monetary policy. It is a fiscal and political premium attached to France alone: the 2027 budget would cut the deficit only from 5.4% to 5.0% of GDP, the government lacks a majority in the National Assembly, and the first vote is on 20 October. How Malaysia compares on debt, yields and ratings is covered in France now pays more than Italy to borrow.
Ten-year minus policy rate
| Market | Policy rate | 10-year minus policy |
|---|---|---|
| United States | 3.75-4.00% | +1.28 points (upper bound) |
| United Kingdom | 3.75% | +1.59 points |
| Germany (euro area deposit rate) | 2.50% | +1.05 points |
| Japan | 1.25% | +1.86 points |
| South Korea (comparison) | 3.00% | +1.40 points |
| Malaysia | 2.75% (OPR) | +1.12 points (end-August); about +1.30 (end-September, ADB) |
Malaysia’s gap sits inside the range of the big four. The OPR was held at 2.75% on 3 September 2026, so the movement is all at the long end.
Where is Malaysia in this wave?
Malaysia rode the same direction, but at about half the size.
Rise in the Malaysian 10-year (end-2025 to end-September 2026, ADB month-end) against the US 10-year (2 January to 7 October 2026)
| Malaysia 10-year MGS | Value |
|---|---|
| End-2025 (BNM) | 3.506% |
| End-August 2026 (BNM) | 3.867%, +36 bp; highest month-end since October 2024 |
| End-September 2026 (ADB, data: Bloomberg) | 4.048%, +54 bp; highest month-end since October 2023 on BNM history |
| 8 October 2026 (BNM benchmark close) | 3.96% |
| Rank of August among 236 month-ends since 2007 | 107th |
In the US, UK, Germany and Japan, 2026 yields are the highest in 15 to 30 years. In Malaysia the latest values are a three-year high, and the August level is in the middle of the range since 2007. The Malaysian yield also moved later: most of the rise came in July, August and September, after the big four had already climbed.
Low inflation is the most visible difference. BNM reported headline inflation averaging 1.8% in the first seven months of 2026, against 3.4% in the US in August and 3.8% in the euro area in September. This note does not attempt to separate the other possible reasons.
- Update 19 October: the 10-year MGS closed at 3.83% on 16 October (BNM benchmark close), 96 bp below France’s 4.79% on the same day.
Estimate a future goal with today’s rates →
Big-four yields are daily values from each country's official curve; Malaysian values are BNM month-end figures, with September from ADB (Bloomberg) as a supplement. The start and end dates differ by country. The UK 30-year above 6% is a news report of an intraday level. South Korea is shown only for comparison.
Questions & answers
Which countries' bond yields hit multi-year highs in 2026?
The United States (10-year 5.28% on 7 October, highest since 2002), the United Kingdom (5.337%, highest since 2007), Germany (a 2026 high of 3.69%, highest since 2011) and Japan (3.111%, highest since 1996).
Did Malaysian bond yields rise as much?
No. The 10-year MGS yield rose 36 bp from end-2025 to end-August 2026 on BNM data, or 54 bp to end-September on ADB data. The US rose about 109 bp from early January to 7 October. Malaysia's level is the highest month-end since 2023, not since the 2000s.
Why are long-term yields rising around the world?
Three forces overlap: higher oil prices and inflation after the war with Iran began in February 2026, large government bond issuance in the US, UK, Germany and Japan, and a higher term premium, the extra return investors demand for holding long bonds.
Why has France, rather than the whole euro area, been singled out?
Every euro member shares the ECB's 2.50% deposit rate, so France's extra cost is specific to France: a 2027 budget that trims the deficit only from 5.4% to 5.0% of GDP, a government without a majority, and a first parliamentary vote on 20 October. Between 2 September and 16 October Germany's 10-year moved from 3.39% to 3.42% while France's rose from 4.24% to 4.79%, taking it above Italy's roughly 4.50%.
Source
- US Department of the Treasury - Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates ↗
- Bank of England - Interactive database (IUDMNPY) ↗
- Deutsche Bundesbank - Interest rates and yields ↗
- Ministry of Finance Japan - JGB interest rates ↗
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York - ACM term premia ↗
- The Edge Malaysia - Japan's budget request and bond issuance ↗
- Bank Negara Malaysia - Monthly Highlights & Statistics, Table 2.5 Market Indicative Yield: MGS (month-end) ↗
- ADB AsianBondsOnline (data: Bloomberg) - Local currency government bond yields ↗
- Bank Negara Malaysia - Government Securities Yield (daily benchmark closing yields) ↗
- Bank Negara Malaysia - Monetary Policy Statement, 3 September 2026 ↗
- ideal-investisseur - OAT-Bund 10-year spread, daily table (data: Banque de France, Bundesbank) ↗
- Boursorama (Reuters) - OAT yield touches highest since 2002 ↗