Malaysia 2026 GDP growth forecast: how the IMF, MOF and BNM revised it, and what actual growth shows

In October 2025 the IMF expected Malaysia to grow 4.0% in 2026. A year later its figure is 5.2%. The official forecasts moved the same way, but each move came after the quarterly data had already landed above them.

What is the 2026 growth forecast now?

All three main forecasts now sit around 5%. The IMF’s October 2026 World Economic Outlook projects 5.2% (IMF DataMapper, read on 29 October 2026). The Finance Ministry’s Economic Outlook 2027 gives a range of 4.8-5.3% (Bernama, 9 October 2026). Bank Negara said the economy’s momentum “is expected to bring 2026 growth to around 5%” (BNM, 3 September 2026).

IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2026: projected real GDP growth for Malaysia in 2026 (2027: 4.6%). Malaysia grew 5.2% in 2025.

For 2027, the IMF projects 4.6% and the Finance Ministry 4.2-5.2%.

How have the forecasts changed since October 2025?

Upward, in steps. The table lists each forecast for 2026 by date.

Visual guide

How have the forecasts changed since October 2025?

1. 10 Oct 2025

   Source

   Finance Ministry, Economic Outlook 2026 (Budget 2026)

   2026 forecast

   4.0-4.5%

   Change

   first forecast

2. 12 Mar 2026

   Source

   Government

   2026 forecast

   4.0-4.5%

   Change

   maintained

3. 14 Aug 2026

   Source

   Bank Negara

   2026 forecast

   4-5%, most likely around 5%

   Change

   no formal revision

4. Oct 2026

   Source

   IMF, World Economic Outlook

   2026 forecast

   5.2%

   Change

   +0.5 points

Date	Source	2026 forecast	Change
10 Oct 2025	Finance Ministry, Economic Outlook 2026 (Budget 2026)	4.0-4.5%	first forecast
Oct 2025	IMF, World Economic Outlook	4.0%	first forecast
Jan 2026	IMF, WEO Update	4.3%	+0.3 points
12 Mar 2026	Government	4.0-4.5%	maintained
31 Mar 2026	Bank Negara, Economic and Monetary Review 2025	4-5%	first BNM range
Apr 2026	IMF, World Economic Outlook	4.7%	+0.4 points
Jul 2026	IMF, WEO Update	4.7%	unchanged
14 Aug 2026	Bank Negara	4-5%, most likely around 5%	no formal revision
3 Sep 2026	Bank Negara, Monetary Policy Statement	around 5%	—
9 Oct 2026	Finance Ministry, Economic Outlook 2027 (Budget 2027)	4.8-5.3%	range raised
Oct 2026	IMF, World Economic Outlook	5.2%	+0.5 points

Sources: Malay Mail, The Star, Oct 2025, Jan 2026, Mar 2026, BNM review, Apr 2026, The Vibes, Jul 2026, Bernama, Aug 2026, The Star, Oct 2026.

Two moments explain the pace. In March, Finance Minister II Amir Hamzah Azizan said the government would hold off on raising its forecast while the Middle East conflict played out (Free Malaysia Today, 6 March 2026). In August, after second-quarter growth of 6.0%, the Bank Negara governor said there was no need to revise yet and that revisions normally come with the Budget (Bernama, 14 August 2026). The official range was raised in October.

What has actual growth been so far?

Every quarter of 2026 so far has grown above 5%. DOSM’s advance estimate puts Q3 at 5.3%, after 6.0% in Q2, and growth for the first nine months at 5.5% (DOSM, 16 October 2026).

Quarter	Advance estimate, YoY	Preliminary estimate, YoY
Q1 2025	4.4%	4.4%
Q2 2025	4.5%	4.6%
Q3 2025	5.2%	5.3%
Q4 2025	5.7%	6.2%
Q1 2026	5.3%	5.4%
Q2 2026	5.8%	6.0%
Q3 2026	5.3%	due 18 November 2026

In none of the last six quarters was the advance estimate revised down. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the economy shrank 0.03% quarter on quarter in Q1 2026 and grew 2.5% in Q2 (DOSM, Q2 2026).

The current forecasts imply a slower fourth quarter. Using DOSM’s quarterly real GDP (RM1,737.0 billion for 2025 and RM1,350.0 billion for the first three quarters of 2026, including the Q3 advance estimate), the growth Q4 would need is:

Full-year 2026 growth	Q4 2026 growth needed, YoY (CapsWindow calculation)
4.8% (bottom of Finance Ministry range)	about 2.7%
5.0% (Bank Negara, around 5%)	about 3.5%
5.2% (IMF)	about 4.2%
5.3% (top of Finance Ministry range)	about 4.6%

This is arithmetic, not a forecast of Q4. A revision to Q3 or earlier quarters would change every row.

Why were the forecasts raised?

The agencies gave mostly the same reasons: exports and technology, with the Middle East conflict as the main risk.

• Bank Negara, September 2026: “Growth was driven by stronger-than-expected export performance amid sustained domestic demand.” It listed “a prolonged conflict in the Middle East and lower commodity production” as downside risks (BNM).
• IMF, July 2026: Malaysia is “benefitting from data centre activity and the upturn in the global technology cycle” (The Vibes).
• Finance Ministry, October 2026: growth supported by “sustained domestic demand, favourable labour market conditions, continued income growth and firm investment activity”; total trade estimated to rise 27.2% to RM3.9 trillion in 2026, “boosted by the global technology upcycle and favourable energy sector” (Bernama).
• Bank Negara, March 2026, when it first set 4-5%: Malaysia faced “external headwinds mainly from conflict in West Asia” (The Star).

The DOSM data are consistent with that story: electrical, electronic and optical products grew 14.4% in Q2, while mining contracted 4.9% in Q3 on lower crude oil output. How export prices changed national income is covered in GDP vs GDI in Malaysia.

Did the forecasts trail reality, as in Korea?

In direction, yes. Korea is the clearest case this year: the Bank of Korea raised its 2026 forecast from 1.8% in November 2025 to 2.0%, 2.6% and then 3.3% in August 2026, while its quarterly forecasts of 0.9%, 0.2% and 0.3% compared with actual growth of 1.8%, 0.6% and 1.0%. In 2025 the error went the other way: the forecast was cut from 1.9% to 0.8-0.9%, and growth came in at 1.1% (Kyunghyang Shinmun, 27 October 2026).

	Korea (Bank of Korea)	Malaysia
2026 forecast, late 2025	1.8% (Nov 2025)	Finance Ministry 4.0-4.5%; IMF 4.0%
Latest 2026 forecast	3.3% (Aug 2026)	Finance Ministry 4.8-5.3%; IMF 5.2%
Size of upgrade	+1.5 points	Finance Ministry midpoint +0.8 points; IMF +1.2 points
2025 forecast cut	1.9% to 0.8-0.9%	Bank Negara 4.5-5.5% to 4.0-4.8% (Jul 2025)
2025 actual	1.1%	5.2%

Malaysia’s numbers fit the same observation. In 2025 Bank Negara cut its range in July over tariff uncertainty (Malay Mail, 28 July 2025), and growth came in at 5.2%, above the top of the new range. In 2026 the official range was raised only after the first half had grown 5.7%. Two years are a small sample, and Malaysia’s misses were smaller than Korea’s in relative terms, but in both years the forecasts caught up with the data rather than the other way round.

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