Philippine inflation vs the US: 7.2% against 3.7%, and why the Philippines is the exception
In September 2026 Philippine consumer prices rose 7.2% from a year earlier, against 3.7% in the US. Among the Asian markets CapsWindow covers, the Philippines is the only one where the latest inflation rate is above the US. How often that has happened since 2020, what rice, food and the peso have to do with it, and what it means for peso and dollar amounts.
Across most of Asia, the story of 2026 has been local inflation running below the US. The Philippines is the exception. Since March, Philippine consumer prices have been rising faster than American ones, and the gap widened again in September.
How far is Philippine inflation from the US now?
3.5 percentage points higher. Philippine headline inflation was 7.2% in the year to September 2026, up from 6.1% in August and matching April’s three-year high, according to PSA data reported by GMA News. US consumer prices rose 3.7% over the same twelve months (BLS).
Philippine headline inflation (7.2%) minus US CPI inflation (3.7%), year on year, September 2026. Both are official headline figures for the same month.
The eight Asian markets with comparable CPI data on this site are Taiwan, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines. In their latest common month in this site’s data, the Philippines was the only one above the US.
How often has the Philippines been higher since 2020?
In 43 of 78 months, more than half. This uses this site’s monthly data from January 2020 to July 2026, counting only months with a figure for both; the US series has no October 2025 value. Annual figures are simple averages of monthly year-on-year rates.
How often has the Philippines been higher since 2020?
Philippine CPI / US CPI
Shared linear scale from zero. Selected entries from the table below. Its dates, units, definitions and limitations still apply.
| Year | Philippine CPI | US CPI | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2.39% | 1.25% | +1.14 pp |
| 2021 | 3.93% | 4.68% | −0.75 pp |
| 2022 | 5.81% | 8.00% | −2.19 pp |
| 2023 | 6.01% | 4.15% | +1.86 pp |
| 2024 | 3.22% | 2.95% | +0.27 pp |
| 2025 (11 months) | 1.66% | 2.69% | −1.03 pp |
| 2026 (January–July) | 5.02% | 3.26% | +1.76 pp |
| September 2026 (official, latest) | 7.2% | 3.7% | +3.5 pp |
CapsWindow calculations from BIS consumer price data for the Philippines and FRED CPIAUCSL for the US, except the last row.
The pattern runs in waves. The Philippines was higher through 2020 and early 2021, lower during the US surge of 2021–2022 (when US inflation peaked at 8.98% in June 2022, the Philippine rate was 6.09%), higher again from November 2022 through most of 2024, and lower through 2025, when Philippine inflation fell as low as 0.95% in July. In February 2026 the two were almost level, 2.42% against 2.43%. From March the Philippine rate pulled ahead, reaching 7.23% in April against 3.78% in the US, the widest monthly gap in this site’s data since 2020. Official figures for August (6.1% against 3.4%) and September extend the run.
Why is it higher?
Food first. In September, food and non-alcoholic beverage prices were 6.7% higher than a year earlier, up from 4.6% in August, and the food index accounted for 73.4% of the month’s rise in inflation, according to GMA News. The government’s economic planning secretary attributed the rise mainly to “disruptions in food supply caused by adverse weather and higher global oil prices.”
| Item, Philippines | September 2026 | August 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Headline inflation | 7.2% | 6.1% |
| Core inflation | 4.7% | 4.1% |
| Food and non-alcoholic beverages | 6.7% | 4.6% |
| Rice | 20.3% | 19.4% |
| Vegetables, tubers and pulses | 10.7% | −3.4% |
| Transport | 14.6% | 13.5% |
| Housing, water, electricity, gas | 8.4% | 7.9% |
Figures as reported by GMA News and the Daily Tribune from PSA data. The PSA release could not be opened directly for this note.
Rice stands out. The Daily Tribune reported that rice inflation accelerated “due to tighter domestic supply and higher transportation costs.” Trade policy has also changed over the past year: the rice import tariff rose from 15% to 20% from 1 January 2026, after imports had been suspended from September to December 2025 (BigMint), and in September 2026 trade sources told S&P Global that import clearances from Thailand, Vietnam and Myanmar had been halted during the harvest season. This note does not estimate how much each factor contributed.
The peso adds a further layer. On the BIS daily series, the peso went from ₱58.95 per dollar on 31 December 2025 to ₱63.13 on 20 October 2026, about 7.1% more pesos per dollar. Oil, fertiliser and other imports priced in dollars cost more in pesos as a result. On 22 October BSP Governor Eli Remolona said the BSP was “not hiking the policy rate to defend the peso,” but that sharp depreciation was a concern because of imported inflation (Philstar).
Is core inflation also higher?
Yes, which matters more than the headline. Core inflation, which leaves out volatile food and energy prices, was 4.7% in September in the Philippines, up from 4.1%, as reported by the Daily Tribune. US core inflation was 2.6%. The two measures exclude slightly different items, but both point the same way.
In the US the headline rate (3.7%) is well above core (2.6%), so most of the rise is energy. In the Philippines core is lower than the headline, but at 4.7% it is above the top of the BSP’s 2% to 4% target range on its own. In August the BSP said core inflation was “above the tolerance range, reflecting second-round effects,” according to Context.ph: higher food and fuel costs feeding into wages, fares and other prices.
What does the gap mean for your money?
First, real interest rates are negative. The BSP raised its target reverse repurchase rate by 50 basis points to 5.50% on 22 October, its fourth increase this year and the first half-point move since February 2023 (Philstar). Minus September inflation of 7.2%, the simple real policy rate is −1.70 percentage points. In the US it is +0.30 (4.00% minus 3.7%). The BSP kept its 2026 inflation forecast at 6.1% and raised 2027 to 6.0%, projecting 3.3% for 2028. Our note on the BSP rate gap with the Fed has the history, written before this decision.
Second, the exchange rate has done most of the adjusting. In a simple purchasing power parity view, a country with persistently higher inflation tends to see its currency weaken over long periods. Since 2019 the peso has weakened by more than the inflation difference.
| December 2019 to July 2026 | Change |
|---|---|
| Philippine CPI | +30.6% |
| US CPI | +28.7% |
| PHP per USD (monthly average, 50.78 to 61.60) | +21.3% |
| Philippine CPI relative to US CPI, in one currency | about −16% |
For someone receiving US dollars, US$1,000 converted at the December 2019 average rate was ₱50,778. At the July 2026 rate it was ₱61,604. Deflated with Philippine CPI, that is about ₱47,157 in December 2019 prices, about 7.1% less purchasing power. A peso amount held as cash over the same period lost about 23.5%. These are CapsWindow calculations from this site’s CPI and BIS exchange rate data.
To put your own amount and dates into the same comparison, use the past money calculator.
Compare a peso amount over time →
Sources and months differ. The 2020–July 2026 table uses this site's data: the Philippine CPI is not seasonally adjusted and the US series (CPIAUCSL) is, so US figures can differ by a few tenths from the BLS headline rate. The US series has no value for October 2025, so that month is left out rather than estimated. August and September 2026 Philippine figures are as reported by GMA News and the Daily Tribune from PSA data, because the PSA site could not be opened for this note. Each country's basket reflects its own household spending, and a CPI measures change, not price levels. Rice trade measures are described as reported, without any estimate of their effect. Nothing here predicts inflation, interest rates or the peso.
Questions & answers
Why is Philippine inflation higher than US inflation when most of Asia is lower?
Mostly because of food: food and non-alcoholic beverage prices rose 6.7% in the year to September 2026, rice rose 20.3%, and the food index accounted for 73.4% of the month's rise in inflation. Fuel and transport also rose, and the peso weakened about 7% against the dollar between the end of 2025 and 20 October 2026, which makes imports such as oil cost more in pesos. Core inflation of 4.7% shows the pressure has spread beyond food and fuel.
Is Philippine inflation within the BSP target?
No. The BSP's target range is 2% to 4%. September inflation was 7.2%, the year-to-date average was 5.4%, and on 22 October the BSP kept its 2026 forecast at 6.1% and raised its 2027 forecast to 6.0%, with a return towards the 3% midpoint projected only for 2028.
Does the inflation gap mean the peso will keep weakening?
Not necessarily, and this note does not forecast it. Over December 2019 to July 2026 the peso weakened about 21% against the dollar while Philippine prices rose slightly more than US prices, so the exchange rate moved more than the inflation gap alone would suggest. Interest rates, oil, capital flows and remittances all affect the peso.
Source
- GMA News - Inflation accelerates to 7.2% in September 2026 (PSA data) ↗
- Daily Tribune - September inflation ties three-year high of 7.2% (6 October 2026) ↗
- PSA - Summary inflation report, September 2026 ↗
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics - Consumer Price Index, September 2026 ↗
- Philstar - Inflation risks prompt BSP to hike rates anew (22 October 2026) ↗
- Context.ph - BSP hike and 2-4% inflation target (27 August 2026) ↗
- BigMint - Philippines raises rice import tariff as market reopens in 2026 ↗
- S&P Global - Philippines halts import licenses for rice from Thailand, Vietnam, Myanmar (14 September 2026) ↗
- BIS - Daily bilateral exchange rates, Philippine peso ↗
- BIS - Consumer prices (Philippine series used in this site's data) ↗
- FRED - US CPI for all urban consumers (CPIAUCSL) ↗
- CapsWindow - Data & methodology ↗