M2 or CPI: what does “the value of PHP” actually mean?
Compare money-supply share and consumer purchasing power, with a worked example and a checklist for reading PHP calculations.
Read more →Notes
Practical explanations of money supply, prices and exchange rates, with sources and calculators.
Philippines 2026 GDP growth forecast: how the IMF, DBCC, World Bank and ADB cut it to 3.3–4.5%
The IMF now expects Philippine GDP to grow 3.4% in 2026, down from 5.7% a year ago, and the government's DBCC target is 3.5–4.5%, down from 6–7%. Every revision since mid-2025 with dates and stated reasons, the actual 2.8% and 2.3% quarters, the Q3 release due in early November, and how Korea's forecasts moved the other way.
Read more →Philippine GDP vs GNI in 2026: why national income stopped outgrowing output, and the terms of trade
Philippine real GNI grew 2.2% in Q2 2026, slightly below GDP growth of 2.3%. A year earlier GNI was 2.7 points ahead. What GDP, GNI and GDI measure, why overseas workers' income used to lift GNI, what the oil shock means for the terms of trade, and how this compares with Korea's chip-driven income gain.
Read more →MP2 dividend vs inflation: ₱1 million in Pag-IBIG MP2 became about ₱1.98 million in 10 years, ahead of prices but behind M2
Pag-IBIG MP2 dividend rates for 2016–2025, compounded, turn ₱1,000,000 into about ₱1,977,916 (7.06% a year). Philippine consumer prices rose 1.42 times over the same ten years and peso M2 2.45 times. Which year MP2 lost to inflation, which rates rest only on secondary tables, and why an MP2 dividend and an SSS pension are different kinds of return.
Read more →Rice prices in pesos: world rice is the 27th dearest month since 2000, and market rice is up 23.9% in a year
The World Bank's Thai 5% rice benchmark was about ₱28.94 a kilo in August 2026, 27th of 320 months since 2000 in pesos but only 102nd in dollars. How much the weaker peso added, what the price looks like after inflation, and why regular-milled rice at Philippine markets rose 23.9% while a day's minimum wage now buys less of it.
Read more →Gold in pesos: down about 21% from the January record, less than in dollars because the peso fell too
Gold has fallen about 26.6% in US dollars from its 29 January 2026 record, but only about 21.4% in pesos, because the peso weakened about 7% over the same months. How past gold bear markets looked in pesos, why recoveries were shorter for peso holders, and how far gold is still above 2019.
Read more →Philippine inflation vs the US: 7.2% against 3.7%, and why the Philippines is the exception
In September 2026 Philippine consumer prices rose 7.2% from a year earlier, against 3.7% in the US. Among the Asian markets CapsWindow covers, the Philippines is the only one where the latest inflation rate is above the US. How often that has happened since 2020, what rice, food and the peso have to do with it, and what it means for peso and dollar amounts.
Read more →France now pays more than Italy to borrow. Where does the Philippines stand on debt, yields and ratings?
France's 10-year yield closed at 4.79% on 16 October 2026, above Italy's. On the IMF's October 2026 figures the Philippines has about half France's debt ratio, yet its 10-year yield is about 3.2 points higher. Why the two measures diverge, how the gap with France has narrowed since 2019, and how the ratings compare.
Read more →MSCI emerging, frontier and standalone markets: what Indonesia's proposed downgrade means for the Philippines
The Philippines is an MSCI emerging market with 9 stocks and about 0.25% of the MSCI EM Index. How MSCI classifies markets, what it proposed for Indonesia on 15 October 2026, why index changes move money, and what that does and does not mean for Philippine stocks and the peso.
Read more →BSP rate vs Fed rate: a 100 bp gap after the Fed's hike, and what to watch on 22 October
The BSP's 5.00% policy rate is 100 basis points above the Federal Reserve's 4.00% upper bound after the Fed's 16 September hike. How the gap has moved since 2019, what the BSP decided in 2026, the real rate after 7.2% inflation, and the late-October meeting calendar.
Read more →Brent oil in pesos: September 2026 was the most expensive month on record — and what reached pump prices
A barrel of Brent averaged ₱7,314 in September 2026, the highest of 321 months since 2000 and above the 2008 and 2022 peaks in pesos. How the weaker peso added to the rise, what the 2008 peak looks like after inflation, and how much has reached Manila pump prices and CPI.
Read more →Does AI spending push up interest rates? Three channels, and what reaches the Philippines
Big Tech plans about US$720-745 billion of capital spending in 2026, much of it borrowed. Since January the US real 10-year yield is up 97 basis points while inflation expectations rose 11. How AI investment can lift rates, the evidence against it, and the Philippine link through electronics exports, data centres and gadget prices.
Read more →Global bond yields 2026: US, UK, Germany and Japan at multi-year highs — where the Philippines stands
Ten-year yields in the US, UK, Germany and Japan are at their highest in 15 to 30 years. The Philippine 10-year rose more than any of them in 2026, by 193 basis points to 7.99%. The causes, the numbers and the limits of the comparison.
Read more →What is the yen carry trade? How a 3% Japanese yield reaches the Philippines
The yen carry trade means borrowing cheaply in yen to buy higher-yielding assets elsewhere. When it unwound on 5 August 2024, the Nikkei fell 12.4% and the PSEi 2.58%. With Japan's 10-year now above 3%, here is how the trade works and the routes by which it touches the peso and Philippine markets.
Read more →Philippine vs US 10-year yield gap: 262 bp wider, peso weaker — does the spread explain USD/PHP?
The Philippine 10-year yield has been above the US 10-year in every month since 2007, and the gap widened to 262 basis points in August 2026. The peso weakened anyway. What the data say about the gap and the exchange rate, and what they do not.
Read more →Philippine yield curve: has the 10-year minus 2-year spread predicted slowdowns?
The Philippine 10-year minus 2-year spread is 92 basis points, below its average of 134. It inverted in only one month since 2007, and the flat stretches before 2020 and in 2023-2024 were followed by very different outcomes.
Read more →Philippine 10-year bond yield at 7.50%: highest since 2018, 28th of 235 months
The Philippine 10-year government bond yield averaged 7.50% in September 2026 and closed at 7.99% on 7 October, the highest since late 2018. Where that sits in 235 months of data, what is left after 7.2% inflation, and what it means for borrowers and bondholders.
Read more →₱5,000 a month in the S&P 500 for 10 years: ₱600,000 became ₱1.51 million
If you had put ₱5,000 into the S&P 500 every month from October 2016, you would have ₱1,508,625 in September 2026 — 2.51 times what you paid in. In US dollars it was only 2.15 times; the weaker peso made up the difference. Plus the Nasdaq-100 over 20 years, timing, lump sum and Philippine tax points.
Read more →USD to PHP by year (1970–2026): 2026's ₱60.63 average is the weakest on record
The peso has averaged ₱60.63 per US dollar in 2026 so far, the weakest annual average on record, ahead of 2025 (₱57.51). Yet in real effective terms the peso is about 15% stronger than its 2000–2019 average. Yearly averages, highs and lows from 1970, crisis periods, and how to use the numbers.
Read more →US stock returns in pesos: S&P 500 +29.4% as the peso weakened 7.5%
From August 2025 to August 2026 the S&P 500 rose 20.3% in US dollars but 29.4% in Philippine pesos, because the peso weakened 7.5%. The formula, a ₱100,000 example, timing, and the hedging math with the BSP at 5%.
Read more →Why is the peso weak? A US$15.4 billion current-account deficit in H1 2026
The Philippines runs a current-account deficit, not a surplus: US$15.4 billion in January–June 2026. Remittances, BPO services and foreign loans financed most of it, but not all, and the peso slid to 62.85 per dollar. The BSP numbers, flow by flow.
Read more →What is chipflation? iPhone 17 up ₱12,000 in the Philippines
Chipflation is the AI-driven memory shortage raising gadget prices. The iPhone 17 256GB rose from ₱57,990 to ₱69,990, but the related CPI group rose 1.0%.
Read more →When will the BSP's 2026 rate hikes reach borrowers?
The BSP raised rates three times in 2026, to 5.00%, with inflation at 6.19%. On published lag estimates, loan rates adjust in 2027, peak effect into 2028.
Read more →Higher rates, bigger debt: why the money stock keeps growing
The BSP raised its policy rate three times in 2026 and the Fed followed on 16 September, yet Philippine M2 still grew 9.02% over twelve months. A rate rise pushes a money stock two ways at once. Here is the arithmetic.
Read more →Policy rates and ten-year yields across 11 markets
The Philippine ten-year yield of 7.53% is the highest of the 11 markets here, and the gap over the policy rate is the widest at 253 basis points. After inflation of 6.19%, the real yield is +1.34 points and the ranking drops to sixth.
Read more →Inbound tourism spending in the Philippines rose 16.4% in pesos and 4.8% in US dollars since 2019 — with 22% fewer visitors
Inbound tourism expenditure went from ₱600.0 billion in 2019 to ₱698.5 billion in 2025 while arrivals fell from 8.26 million to 6.48 million. Because the peso weakened, the dollar reading of the same figures is much flatter.
Read more →The Philippines publishes no household balance sheet — SSS at ₱979.5 billion and GSIS at ₱1,822.7 billion are the measured parts
There is no official figure for the share of Filipino household assets held in deposits, because no agency compiles a household financial balance sheet. What is published is the asset side of the two state pension funds and the life insurance sector, each on its own basis.
Read more →Digital payments passed half of retail volume in 2023 — and that still does not tell you the cash share
BSP reports that 57.4% of retail payment volume was digital in 2024, up from 1% in 2013. The other 42.6% is labelled non-digital, not cash, and cheques sit inside it. Meanwhile currency in circulation is 14.85% of M2, the highest of the nine Asian markets compared here.
Read more →The Philippines passes the classic reserves test best in Asia — at 18.3%
On the Guidotti–Greenspan benchmark the Philippines has the strongest reading of the nine Asian markets compared here. But reserves are only 22.8% of GDP and fell 5.4% in the first eight months of 2026, which is why one ratio is not an answer.
Read more →How far did the peso fall in each crisis? The pattern is slow and long
The peso took fifteen months to reach its 1997 low and twenty-two months to reach the high of the current episode. Compared with markets that fell faster and further, the Philippine pattern is a shallower move that lasts much longer — and often does not come back.
Read more →Steady money growth, swinging prices
A policy rate reaches prices through credit and the money supply, not directly. Trace that path, then read the years when Philippine money growth stayed near 7-9% while inflation swung between 1.35% and 8.68%.
Read more →When prices rise, where does the lost purchasing power go?
Philippine inflation of 6.19% in the year to 2026-07 applied to national government debt of ₱19,389.2 billion works out to roughly ₱1.2 trillion of eroded real burden. This note shows the arithmetic and its limits.
Read more →A payout fixed today, collected in 20 years: what is it worth?
A sum assured, a fixed annuity or a guaranteed maturity value fixes a number, not a value. Here is what 2006-07 → 2026-07 of money supply and consumer prices did to a ₱5,000,000 payout in the Philippines, and what each benchmark cannot tell you.
Read more →Money supply keeps growing in the Philippines — so should you buy assets now?
Peso cash clearly lost ground since 2001, but four global interest-rate regimes show the winning asset changes with the cost of money — including a 20-year stretch when gold lost 80.6% in real terms.
Read more →How a supply shock reaches your currency
Freight, refining, inflation, bond yields, exchange rate: the 2026 energy shock traced through five measurable steps, and what each step does not tell you.
Read more →Why exchange rates change a US benchmark expressed in PHP
Follow the three-step conversion from PHP to USD and back, and see how currency movements can change a money-value comparison.
Read more →Why the M2 counter moves: reading the PHP trend estimate
Understand the clock-based M2 projection, its reference month, annual growth assumption and the difference from published statistics.
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