How far did the peso fall in each crisis? The pattern is slow and long
The peso took fifteen months to reach its 1997 low and twenty-two months to reach the high of the current episode. Compared with markets that fell faster and further, the Philippine pattern is a shallower move that lasts much longer — and often does not come back.
How far did the peso fall in each crisis?
By 66.0% in the 1997 episode and by between 0.4% and 14.6% in the four since. The table below uses the monthly average of the peso against the US dollar from a single series, measured from the base month to the highest monthly average in that window (BIS bilateral rates).
How far did the peso fall in each crisis?
Depreciation
Shared linear scale from zero. Selected entries from the table below. Its dates, units, definitions and limitations still apply.
| Episode | Base month | Peak (monthly average) | Depreciation | Time taken |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 Asian financial crisis | 26.3761 (Jun 1997) | 43.7759 (Sep 1998) | +66.0% | 15 months |
| 2008 global financial crisis | 44.3024 (Jun 2008) | 49.0880 (Nov 2008) | +10.8% | 5 months |
| 2020 Covid | 50.8415 (Jan 2020) | 51.0302 (Mar 2020) | +0.4% | 2 months |
| 2022 tightening | 51.2621 (Jan 2022) | 58.7653 (Oct 2022) | +14.6% | 9 months |
| 2024–2026 | 56.0569 (Sep 2024) | 61.6035 (Jul 2026) | +9.9% | 22 months |
The two numbers in that box are the story of this market. In 1997 the Thai baht and the Malaysian ringgit reached their peaks in seven months. The peso took fifteen, and moved a good deal less. The same shape appears in the current episode: a 9.9% move spread over twenty-two months.
All figures are monthly averages, not daily closes or intraday extremes, which are always further out during volatile periods. The base month is fixed at June 1997 for every market so the episodes can be compared, which means it does not line up with the dates on which individual countries changed policy. The site's calculators use a different exchange-rate series from this table, so decimals may differ slightly; do not mix the two series in one table.
Slow does not mean it comes back
The table below counts from the peak month to the first month in which the monthly average returned to the base-month level or below.
| Episode | Depreciation | Time to recover |
|---|---|---|
| 1997 Asian financial crisis | +66.0% | not recovered |
| 2008 global financial crisis | +10.8% | 22 months |
| 2020 Covid | +0.4% | 1 month |
| 2022 tightening | +14.6% | not recovered |
| 2024–2026 | +9.9% | not recovered |
Three of the five episodes have not returned. The January 2022 level of 51.2621 has not been reached again, and neither has the September 2024 level of 56.0569. The August 2026 monthly average is 61.4451.
Only the 2008 and 2020 episodes closed, and 2008 needed 22 months to do it.
Put the two tables together and a practical reading follows. In this market the exchange rate does not usually produce a single dramatic month that everyone notices. It produces a slope. Anyone with a peso income and dollar-priced costs — imported fuel, school fees abroad, an online subscription — is affected by the accumulation rather than by any one month, and an accumulation is easier to miss.
Was the peso alone in 1997?
No, and the differences between markets were very large. The table below measures from June 1997 to each currency’s own peak using the same method.
| Currency | Depreciation from Jun 1997 | Time taken |
|---|---|---|
| Indonesian rupiah | +467.4% | 13 months |
| Thai baht | +116.0% | 7 months |
| Malaysian ringgit | +75.2% | 7 months |
| Philippine peso | +66.0% | 15 months |
| Taiwan dollar | +24.5% | 14 months |
| Singapore dollar | +23.1% | 14 months |
| Hong Kong dollar | +0.4% | 30 months |
For a reference outside the region, the Korean won fell 90.4% in seven months. The Hong Kong dollar barely moved, because a linked exchange rate absorbs pressure through interest rates and reserves instead of through the currency.
The Philippines operates a floating exchange rate within an inflation-targeting framework, so the peso is where external pressure becomes visible rather than something held at a set level. That is one reason the moves here are gradual rather than stepped. This paragraph interprets the policy framework; the figures in the tables are observations from the monthly exchange-rate series.
What to check when reading these numbers
Start with the basis of measurement. Monthly averages, daily closes and intraday extremes give three different answers for the same event. This page uses monthly averages throughout so that five episodes stay comparable.
Then check the base month. Change the base month and the percentage changes immediately. This table uses one set of base months for every market, which makes cross-market comparison possible but does not match the Philippines’ own policy dates.
Finally, separate the exchange rate from purchasing power. A 66.0% depreciation does not mean domestic prices rose 66.0%. The exchange rate changes import prices first, and the pass-through into the consumer price index is partial and takes time.
Questions & answers
How much did the peso fall in the 1997 Asian financial crisis?
On a monthly-average basis, 66.0%. The rate went from 26.3761 in June 1997 to 43.7759 in September 1998, taking fifteen months. These are full-month averages, not daily highs, which were higher still.
Why did the peso take longer than the baht or the ringgit?
Both of those currencies reached their 1997 peaks in seven months; the peso took fifteen. The pattern of a shallower move spread over a longer period repeats in later episodes, including the current one, which reached its high after twenty-two months.
Has the peso recovered from the 2022 episode?
No. The January 2022 level of 51.2621 has not been reached again on a monthly-average basis, and the August 2026 monthly average is 61.4451. Of the five episodes measured here, only the 2008 and 2020 ones returned to their base-month level.
Why do the numbers here differ from the rates quoted in the news?
This page uses a single monthly-average series across the whole table so that five episodes can be compared on one basis. News reports usually quote daily closes or intraday extremes, which give more extreme figures during volatile periods.