Notes · English

Philippines 2026 GDP growth forecast: how the IMF, DBCC, World Bank and ADB cut it to 3.3–4.5%

The IMF now expects Philippine GDP to grow 3.4% in 2026, down from 5.7% a year ago, and the government's DBCC target is 3.5–4.5%, down from 6–7%. Every revision since mid-2025 with dates and stated reasons, the actual 2.8% and 2.3% quarters, the Q3 release due in early November, and how Korea's forecasts moved the other way.

CapsWindowPublished: October 29, 2026

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Key takeaways

As of 29 October 2026, the IMF projects Philippine real GDP growth of 3.4% for 2026 (October 2026 World Economic Outlook). The government's Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) targets 3.5–4.5%, the World Bank 3.7% and the ADB 3.3%.
Every institution has cut its forecast. The IMF went from 5.7% in October 2025 to 3.4%, down 2.3 points. The DBCC cut its 2026 target twice, from 6–7% to 5–6% in December 2025 and to 3.5–4.5% at end-June 2026 (CapsWindow calculation of the changes).
Actual growth was 2.8% in Q1 and 2.3% in Q2 2026, for 2.6% in the first half. The PSA is expected to publish Q3 in early November; CapsWindow could not confirm the exact date. GMA News calculated that the second half must grow 4.4% to reach the bottom of the DBCC range.
The reasons the institutions gave were mostly the same: the Middle East war and oil prices, public construction falling after the flood-control corruption scandal, high inflation and weak confidence. Korea shows the reverse pattern, with the Bank of Korea raising its 2026 forecast from 1.8% to 3.3% in a year of booming chip exports.
Forecasts are conditional and each has its own cut-off date. In both 2025 and 2026, the big Philippine cuts came after weak quarters and the oil shock had already happened, not before them.

A year ago almost every forecaster expected the Philippines to grow faster in 2026 than in 2025. The opposite happened in the first half, and the forecasts have been following the data down ever since.

What is the 2026 growth forecast now?

Between 3.3% and 4.5%, depending on the institution. The IMF’s October 2026 World Economic Outlook projects 3.4% for 2026 and 5.1% for 2027 (IMF DataMapper). That is the same as the IMF staff projection announced after its Article IV mission on 25 September 2026.

3.4%

IMF projection for Philippine real GDP growth in 2026, October 2026 World Economic Outlook. In October 2025 the IMF expected 5.7%.

Visual guide

What is the 2026 growth forecast now?

IMF (World Economic Outlook)
2026 forecast
3.4%
2027 forecast
5.1%
Published
October 2026
World Bank
2026 forecast
3.7%
2027 forecast
5.2%
Published
6 October 2026
ADB (Asian Development Outlook)
2026 forecast
3.3%
2027 forecast
5.1%
Published
23 September 2026
DBCC (government target)
2026 forecast
3.5–4.5%
2027 forecast
5.0–6.0%
Published
end-June 2026; statement of 8 July 2026

Selected entries from the table below. Its dates, units, definitions and limitations still apply.

Sources ↓

Institution	2026 forecast	2027 forecast	Published
IMF (World Economic Outlook)	3.4%	5.1%	October 2026
World Bank	3.7%	5.2%	6 October 2026
ADB (Asian Development Outlook)	3.3%	5.1%	23 September 2026
DBCC (government target)	3.5–4.5%	5.0–6.0%	end-June 2026; statement of 8 July 2026

Sources: Philstar on the World Bank, Daily Tribune on the ADB, DBCC statement via the DBM. The IMF and ADB numbers sit just below the government range; the World Bank’s is inside it. CapsWindow could not confirm a current GDP growth forecast from the BSP, so it is not listed.

How have the forecasts changed since 2025?

Down at almost every step. The table lists each published revision CapsWindow could confirm for the 2026 growth rate.

Date	Institution	2026 forecast	Change (calculated)
26 June 2025	DBCC	6.0–7.0%	—
October 2025	IMF (WEO)	5.7%	—
9 December 2025	DBCC	5.0–6.0%	−1.0 point
December 2025	IMF (Article IV)	5.6%	−0.1
January 2026	IMF (WEO update)	5.6%	0.0
January 2026	World Bank	5.3%	—
8 April 2026	World Bank	3.7%	−1.6
by May 2026	ADB	4.4%	—
14 April 2026	IMF (WEO)	4.1%	−1.5
end-June 2026	DBCC	3.5–4.5%	−1.5 points
July 2026	IMF (WEO update)	3.9%	−0.2
July 2026	ADB	3.8%	−0.6
23 September 2026	ADB	3.3%	−0.5
25 September 2026	IMF (Article IV)	3.4%	−0.5
October 2026	IMF (WEO)	3.4%	0.0
6 October 2026	World Bank	3.7%	0.0

Sources: Philstar, October 2025, GMA News, December 2025, BusinessWorld, April 2026, Philstar, July 2026, Philstar, September 2026, Philstar, April 2026, GMA News, June 2025, Inquirer Plus, Daily Tribune. The ADB’s April figure is as cited by Philstar. Changes compare each institution with its own previous figure; DBCC changes use the midpoint of the range.

In total the IMF cut its 2026 forecast by 2.3 points between October 2025 and October 2026, and the DBCC’s midpoint fell 2.5 points, from 6.5% to 4.0% (CapsWindow calculation). The largest single cuts came in April, after the oil shock.

What has actual growth been so far?

Lower than every forecast made before April. Real GDP grew 2.8% in Q1 2026 and 2.3% in Q2, the weakest since the fourth quarter of 2009 outside the pandemic years (GMA News).

Quarter	Year on year	Quarter on quarter (seasonally adjusted)	Status
Q4 2025	3.0%	not checked	published 29 January 2026
Q1 2026	2.8%	0.9%	revised 7 August 2026, unchanged
Q2 2026	2.3%	0.6%	preliminary, 7 August 2026
Q3 2026	not yet published	not yet published	expected early November

Sources: DZRH, GMA News, FocusEconomics. CapsWindow could not open the PSA’s release calendar to confirm the Q3 date; Q3 2025 was published on 7 November 2025.

First-half growth was 2.6%. GMA News calculated that the second half needs 4.4% to reach the bottom of the DBCC range. BPI lead economist Emilio Neri Jr. expects Q3 growth of “a little over 3” percent (Daily Tribune, 28 October 2026). That is one bank’s forecast; the PSA figure is not known yet.

Why did the forecasts change?

The institutions named largely the same causes, in this order of time:

December 2025: the DBCC pointed to the flood-control corruption scandal, which cut government spending and hurt confidence, and to Q3 2025 growth of 4.0%. The IMF also cited tariffs.
April 2026: the IMF cited the oil shock from the Middle East war, stalled public spending after the graft scandal, a weak 2025 base and a sharp drop in public investment. The World Bank noted that the Philippines is exposed “not only through energy and fertilizer imports but also through remittances.”
End-June 2026: the DBCC said “growth is expected to moderate this year amid heightened domestic and external uncertainties,” and named elevated inflation, possibly slower remittances and visitor arrivals, and El Niño. It listed electronics exports as a possible upside.
September 2026: the IMF cited the weak 2.3% second quarter, the fall in public construction after stricter project reviews, weaker business confidence, natural disasters and the property slowdown. The ADB added tighter global financial conditions.
October 2026: the IMF pointed to high food and energy prices; the World Bank called the Philippines “the outlier in East Asia” because energy costs hurt it more and it gains less from AI-related exports.

These are the reasons each institution stated. Several factors happened at the same time, and the forecasts do not separate how much each one contributed.

Does Korea’s experience show the same pattern?

The same lag, in the opposite direction. The Bank of Korea raised its 2026 growth forecast from 1.8% in November 2025 to 2.0%, 2.6% and then 3.3% in August 2026. Its quarterly forecasts for Q1–Q3 2026 were 0.9%, 0.2% and 0.3%; the actual results were 1.8%, 0.6% and 1.0%, two to three times higher, in a year of booming chip exports (Kyunghyang Shinmun). In 2025 Korea went the other way: the forecast fell from 1.9% to 0.8–0.9%, and actual growth came in at 1.1%.

The Philippine record fits the same observation that forecasts follow results late, but on the way down. In October 2025 the IMF expected 5.4% for 2025; actual growth was 4.4% (DZRH). The DBCC’s 2025 target was 5.5–6.5%. For 2026, the large April cuts came after the oil shock and after growth had slowed through the second half of 2025; the DBCC’s late-June cut came after the 2.8% first quarter, and the IMF’s September cut after the 2.3% second quarter.

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How should these forecasts be read?

A forecast is conditional on its assumptions; the DBCC's July 2026 range assumed Dubai crude at US$80–100 a barrel, inflation of 6–7% and a peso of 60–62 per dollar. Each forecast has a different cut-off date, so two numbers published weeks apart may reflect different data. Quarterly GDP figures are preliminary and revised. Several revision dates and values come from press reports because the IMF, PSA and DBCC original documents could not all be opened; where a report gave only a month, only the month is shown. CapsWindow could not confirm a current BSP growth forecast or the exact Q3 release date. Nothing in this note predicts the Q3 result.

Questions & answers

What is the Philippines' 2026 GDP growth forecast?

As of late October 2026: IMF 3.4% (October 2026 World Economic Outlook), World Bank 3.7% (October 2026), ADB 3.3% (September 2026), and the government's DBCC target of 3.5–4.5% (set at end-June 2026). The IMF expects growth to rebound to 5.1% in 2027.

Why were the forecasts cut?

The institutions cited the Middle East war and higher oil prices, a sharp fall in public construction after the flood-control corruption scandal, high inflation weighing on household spending, weaker confidence and El Niño. The IMF's September cut also followed the weak 2.3% second-quarter result. The World Bank added that the Philippines gains less than its neighbours from AI-related exports.

When is Philippine Q3 2026 GDP released?

The PSA is expected to release it in early November 2026, but CapsWindow could not confirm the exact date because the PSA calendar could not be opened. The Q3 2025 figure was published on 7 November 2025. BPI's lead economist said on 26 October that he expects Q3 growth of 'a little over 3' percent; that is a forecast, not a result.

Can the Philippines still reach the government's target?

It depends on the second half. First-half growth was 2.6%, and GMA News calculated that the economy must grow 4.4% in the second half to reach 3.5%, the bottom of the DBCC range. The IMF's 3.4% and the ADB's 3.3% are both just below that range; the World Bank's 3.7% is inside it.

Source

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