Policy rates and ten-year yields across 11 markets
The Philippine ten-year yield of 7.53% is the highest of the 11 markets here, and the gap over the policy rate is the widest at 253 basis points. After inflation of 6.19%, the real yield is +1.34 points and the ranking drops to sixth.
The Federal Reserve raised rates on 16 September 2026 and interest rates are in the news again. Most coverage is about one number, the policy rate, while the cost of borrowing for years at a time is set in the bond market. Put both on one table for 11 markets and the Philippines is top of four columns — and then it is not.
Where the Philippines sits in this table
First on four measures, sixth on the one that counts what is left.
The Philippine ten-year yield, and what remains after consumer price inflation of 6.19% (July 2026)
| Measure | Philippines | Position among 11 markets |
|---|---|---|
| Ten-year yield | 7.53% | highest |
| Ten-year minus policy | +253 bp | widest |
| M2 year-on-year | +9.02% | fastest |
| Consumer prices | +6.19% | highest |
| Real ten-year yield | +1.34 points | sixth of ten |
| Policy rate | 5.00% | second highest |
Four of those rows say the same thing in different words: this is the market in the table where money and prices are moving fastest, and lenders are being paid the most to wait. The fifth row says the payment is mostly compensation rather than gain.
Policy rates and ten-year yields, 11 markets
Policy rates and ten-year yields, 11 markets
Ten-year
Shared linear scale from zero. Selected entries from the table below. Its dates, units, definitions and limitations still apply.
| Market | Policy rate | Ten-year | Ten-year − policy | Over one year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philippines | 5.00% | 7.53% | +253 bp | +157 bp |
| Indonesia | 5.75% | 7.16% | +141 bp | +83 bp |
| United States | 3.75-4.00% | 5.02% | +114 bp | +96 bp |
| Vietnam | 4.50% | 4.57% | +7 bp | +88 bp |
| South Korea | 3.00% | 4.55% | +155 bp | +176 bp |
| Malaysia | 2.75% | 4.18% | +143 bp | +77 bp |
| Hong Kong | 4.00% | 3.85% | −15 bp | +84 bp |
| Japan | about 1.00% | 3.00% | +200 bp | +140 bp |
| Singapore | no policy rate | 2.52% | — | +76 bp |
| Thailand | 1.00% | 2.35% | +135 bp | +91 bp |
| Taiwan | 2.00% | 1.94% | −6 bp | +56 bp |
Policy rates are as at 17 September 2026; ten-year yields are values retrieved on 15-16 September 2026. The spread column uses the midpoint of a target range where one exists (3.875% for the United States). Singapore runs monetary policy through an exchange rate band and has no policy rate.
The spread column has the widest range of anything in this comparison: from +253 basis points in the Philippines to −15 in Hong Kong, a distance of 268 basis points between the two ends of the same measure.
What moved over the past year
Every one of the 11 markets saw its ten-year yield rise.
Markets where the ten-year yield rose over the past year. Average increase about 100 basis points
The Philippine increase of 157 basis points is second only to South Korea. It came during a year in which the BSP raised its policy rate three times, most recently to 5.00% on 27 August 2026, for 75 basis points of tightening in total. Both ends of the curve moved up, and the long end moved further.
How does this relate to money growth?
Here are the same markets with their M2 growth rates.
| Market | Ten-year | M2 year-on-year | Consumer prices year-on-year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philippines | 7.53% | +9.02% (July 2026) | +6.19% (July 2026) |
| Indonesia | 7.16% | +8.32% (July 2026) | +2.88% (July 2026) |
| United States | 5.02% | +5.41% (July 2026) | +3.30% (July 2026) |
| South Korea | 4.55% | +5.80% (July 2026) | +3.09% (August 2026) |
| Malaysia | 4.18% | +6.78% (June 2026) | +1.78% (July 2026) |
| Hong Kong | 3.85% | +2.65% (June 2026) | +1.65% (July 2026) |
| Japan | 3.00% | +2.18% (July 2026) | +1.90% (July 2026) |
| Singapore | 2.52% | +4.02% (June 2026) | +1.76% (April 2026) |
| Thailand | 2.35% | +5.47% (July 2026) | +1.95% (July 2026) |
| Taiwan | 1.94% | +7.42% (July 2026) | +2.54% (July 2026) |
Vietnam is left out of this table because this site holds no money supply series and no recent price series for it.
Correlation with the ten-year yield — M2 growth on the left, consumer price inflation on the right (ten markets)
Money growth points in the right direction but explains only half. The stronger link to prices is unsurprising: what erodes a ten-year bond’s return is inflation, not the money aggregate itself.
The Philippines is the clearest case for both relationships holding at once: fastest money growth, highest inflation, highest yield. Taiwan is the clearest case against, with M2 up 7.42% and the lowest yield in the table.
These correlations come from a sample of ten markets whose reference months do not line up (money supply April to July 2026, prices April to August 2026). Read them as a summary of one moment's arrangement, not as causation.
What is left after inflation?
| Market | Ten-year | Prices | Real |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indonesia | 7.16% | 2.88% | +4.28 points |
| Malaysia | 4.18% | 1.78% | +2.40 points |
| Hong Kong | 3.85% | 1.65% | +2.20 points |
| United States | 5.02% | 3.30% | +1.72 points |
| South Korea | 4.55% | 3.09% | +1.46 points |
| Philippines | 7.53% | 6.19% | +1.34 points |
| Japan | 3.00% | 1.90% | +1.10 points |
| Singapore | 2.52% | 1.76% | +0.76 points |
| Thailand | 2.35% | 1.95% | +0.40 points |
| Taiwan | 1.94% | 2.54% | −0.60 points |
The Philippines and Indonesia are 37 basis points apart on the nominal yield. After inflation they are almost three percentage points apart, and the order reverses.
The real yields above use inflation that has already happened, not a forecast of inflation over the next ten years. For an investor holding to maturity, what matters is inflation during the holding period, not last month's figure.
Try it with your own figures — enter an amount and a period in the past money calculator to see the M2-based and the price-based answer side by side.
Open the past money calculator →
When should you not use these figures directly?
First, the sources are mixed. The ten-year yields come from a single retrieval source so that the rows are comparable, and they differ from official publications: the US Treasury published 5.00% for 15 September 2026 and Japan’s Ministry of Finance published 3.028% for the same day. Where precision matters, use each market’s official publication.
Second, the reference dates do not line up. Policy rates are 17 September 2026, yields are 15-16 September, and money supply and prices fall between April and August 2026.
Third, three decisions were unpublished at the time of writing: Taiwan’s central bank board (17 September), the Bank of Japan (18 September) and the HKMA Base Rate reflecting the Federal Reserve increase.
Questions & answers
The Philippine ten-year yield is the highest here. Is it the best return?
Not once inflation is taken out. The nominal yield of 7.53% is the highest of the 11 markets, but consumer prices rose 6.19% in the year to July 2026, leaving a real yield of +1.34 percentage points, which is sixth of the ten markets with price data. Indonesia, with a lower nominal yield of 7.16% and inflation of 2.88%, leaves +4.28 points.
Why is the gap over the policy rate so wide?
At 253 basis points it is the widest in this table. A wide gap usually reflects expectations of higher future rates, more inflation risk, or heavier supply of long-dated bonds. The BSP policy rate is 5.00% while the ten-year yield is 7.53%.
Does faster money growth mean higher long-term yields?
There is a tendency, but it explains only part. Across the ten markets with data the correlation between M2 growth and the ten-year yield is 0.59, while the correlation with consumer price inflation is 0.74. The Philippines is consistent with both: it has the fastest money growth and the highest yield.
When are these figures from?
Policy rates are as at 17 September 2026 and ten-year yields are values retrieved on 15-16 September 2026. Money supply and consumer prices are each market's latest published month, ranging from April to August 2026.
Source
- CapsWindow - Data & methodology ↗
- Federal Reserve - FOMC statement, 16 September 2026 ↗
- US Department of the Treasury - Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates ↗
- Ministry of Finance Japan - JGB interest rates ↗
- TradingEconomics - Government bond 10Y (values and year-on-year change for 11 markets) ↗
- Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas - Monetary policy decisions ↗
- Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas - Depository corporations survey ↗
- BIS - Long consumer prices database ↗