Policy rates and ten-year yields across 11 markets
Singapore is the only market in this comparison with no policy rate at all, because MAS runs monetary policy through an exchange rate band. That leaves one cell blank in the table, and the blank cell is the most useful thing in it.
The Federal Reserve raised rates on 16 September 2026 and interest rates are in the news again. Most coverage is about one number, the policy rate, while the cost of borrowing or lending for years at a time is set in the bond market. Putting both on one table for 11 markets leaves Singapore with a blank cell, and that blank is worth explaining.
Where Singapore sits in this table
One row of the table cannot be filled in.
Singapore is the only market of the 11 without one. MAS runs monetary policy through the trade-weighted exchange rate band
| Measure | Singapore | Position among 11 markets |
|---|---|---|
| Policy rate | none | the only blank |
| Ten-year yield | 2.52% | second lowest |
| Ten-year minus policy | not computable | — |
| Change over one year | +76 bp | second smallest |
| Real ten-year yield | +0.76 points | second lowest of ten |
The blank is not missing data. There is no number to put there, because the instrument is the exchange rate band rather than an interest rate. MAS tightened that band at both its April and its July 2026 reviews, in each case by raising the slope of appreciation.
Policy rates and ten-year yields, 11 markets
Policy rates and ten-year yields, 11 markets
Ten-year
Shared linear scale from zero. Selected entries from the table below. Its dates, units, definitions and limitations still apply.
| Market | Policy rate | Ten-year | Ten-year − policy | Over one year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philippines | 5.00% | 7.53% | +253 bp | +157 bp |
| Indonesia | 5.75% | 7.16% | +141 bp | +83 bp |
| United States | 3.75-4.00% | 5.02% | +114 bp | +96 bp |
| Vietnam | 4.50% | 4.57% | +7 bp | +88 bp |
| South Korea | 3.00% | 4.55% | +155 bp | +176 bp |
| Malaysia | 2.75% | 4.18% | +143 bp | +77 bp |
| Hong Kong | 4.00% | 3.85% | −15 bp | +84 bp |
| Japan | about 1.00% | 3.00% | +200 bp | +140 bp |
| Singapore | no policy rate | 2.52% | — | +76 bp |
| Thailand | 1.00% | 2.35% | +135 bp | +91 bp |
| Taiwan | 2.00% | 1.94% | −6 bp | +56 bp |
Policy rates are as at 17 September 2026; ten-year yields are values retrieved on 15-16 September 2026. The spread column uses the midpoint of a target range where one exists (3.875% for the United States).
Two markets have a ten-year yield below their policy rate: Hong Kong at −15 basis points and Taiwan at −6. In both, something other than local demand is setting one of the two ends.
What moved over the past year
Every one of the 11 markets saw its ten-year yield rise.
Markets where the ten-year yield rose over the past year. Average increase about 100 basis points
Singapore’s +76 basis points is the second smallest, ahead only of Taiwan. A market whose rates follow foreign rates and currency expectations does not need a local policy move to see its long end shift, and this year the shift was on the smaller side.
How does this relate to money growth?
Here are the same markets with their M2 growth rates.
| Market | Ten-year | M2 year-on-year | Consumer prices year-on-year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philippines | 7.53% | +9.02% (July 2026) | +6.19% (July 2026) |
| Indonesia | 7.16% | +8.32% (July 2026) | +2.88% (July 2026) |
| United States | 5.02% | +5.41% (July 2026) | +3.30% (July 2026) |
| South Korea | 4.55% | +5.80% (July 2026) | +3.09% (August 2026) |
| Malaysia | 4.18% | +6.78% (June 2026) | +1.78% (July 2026) |
| Hong Kong | 3.85% | +2.65% (June 2026) | +1.65% (July 2026) |
| Japan | 3.00% | +2.18% (July 2026) | +1.90% (July 2026) |
| Singapore | 2.52% | +4.02% (June 2026) | +1.76% (April 2026) |
| Thailand | 2.35% | +5.47% (July 2026) | +1.95% (July 2026) |
| Taiwan | 1.94% | +7.42% (July 2026) | +2.54% (July 2026) |
Vietnam is left out of this table because this site holds no money supply series and no recent price series for it.
Correlation with the ten-year yield — M2 growth on the left, consumer price inflation on the right (ten markets)
Money growth points in the right direction but explains only half. The stronger link to prices is unsurprising: what erodes a ten-year bond’s return is inflation, not the money aggregate itself. Money supply is one of several routes to prices and does not get priced directly into a yield.
Singapore sits close to where this relationship would put it, with mid-table money growth and a low yield. Taiwan is the clearest exception, with M2 up 7.42% and the lowest yield in the table.
These correlations come from a sample of ten markets whose reference months do not line up (money supply April to July 2026, prices April to August 2026). Read them as a summary of one moment's arrangement, not as causation.
What is left after inflation?
| Market | Ten-year | Prices | Real |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indonesia | 7.16% | 2.88% | +4.28 points |
| Malaysia | 4.18% | 1.78% | +2.40 points |
| Hong Kong | 3.85% | 1.65% | +2.20 points |
| United States | 5.02% | 3.30% | +1.72 points |
| South Korea | 4.55% | 3.09% | +1.46 points |
| Philippines | 7.53% | 6.19% | +1.34 points |
| Japan | 3.00% | 1.90% | +1.10 points |
| Singapore | 2.52% | 1.76% | +0.76 points |
| Thailand | 2.35% | 1.95% | +0.40 points |
| Taiwan | 1.94% | 2.54% | −0.60 points |
The Philippines leads on the nominal figure at 7.53%, but inflation of 6.19% leaves +1.34 points. Choosing a market on the nominal number alone misses that gap.
Singapore stays near the bottom on both measures. A low nominal yield with low inflation is a different situation from a high nominal yield with high inflation, even when the real result is similar.
Singapore's consumer price figure is April 2026, the most recent month in this site's series and older than the other markets' figures. The real yield above is therefore built from two dates that are five months apart.
Try it with your own figures — enter an amount and a period in the past money calculator to see the M2-based and the price-based answer side by side.
Open the past money calculator →
When should you not use these figures directly?
First, the sources are mixed. The ten-year yields come from a single retrieval source so that the rows are comparable, and they differ from official publications: the US Treasury published 5.00% for 15 September 2026 and Japan’s Ministry of Finance published 3.028% for the same day. Where precision matters, use each market’s official publication.
Second, the reference dates do not line up, and Singapore’s price figure is the oldest in the set.
Third, three decisions were unpublished at the time of writing: Taiwan’s central bank board (17 September), the Bank of Japan (18 September) and the HKMA Base Rate reflecting the Federal Reserve increase. MAS next reviews policy in October.
Questions & answers
Why does Singapore have no policy interest rate?
MAS conducts monetary policy through the trade-weighted Singapore dollar exchange rate band, adjusting the slope, width or centre of that band. In a small and very open economy the exchange rate is judged the more reliable lever on prices. Domestic interest rates are then largely determined by foreign rates and expectations about the Singapore dollar.
What replaces the policy rate when reading Singapore's monetary stance?
The MAS Monetary Policy Statement, issued in January, April, July and October. In 2026 MAS tightened at both the April and the July reviews by raising the slope of appreciation of the band.
Does faster money growth mean higher long-term yields?
There is a tendency, but it explains only part. Across the ten markets with data the correlation between M2 growth and the ten-year yield is 0.59, while the correlation with consumer price inflation is 0.74. With a sample of ten, treat it as a direction rather than a rule.
When are these figures from?
Policy rates are as at 17 September 2026 and ten-year yields are values retrieved on 15-16 September 2026. Money supply and consumer prices are each market's latest published month, ranging from April to August 2026. Singapore's consumer price figure is April 2026, the most recent month in this site's series.
Source
- CapsWindow - Data & methodology ↗
- Federal Reserve - FOMC statement, 16 September 2026 ↗
- US Department of the Treasury - Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates ↗
- Ministry of Finance Japan - JGB interest rates ↗
- TradingEconomics - Government bond 10Y (values and year-on-year change for 11 markets) ↗
- MAS - Monetary Policy Statement, 27 July 2026 ↗
- MAS / SingStat - Money supply ↗
- BIS - Long consumer prices database ↗