Hong Kong inflation vs the US: 1.9% against 3.7%, with the same interest rates
Hong Kong's consumer prices rose 1.9% in the year to September 2026, against 3.7% in the US. The peg ties Hong Kong's rates to the Fed, but not its prices. How often Hong Kong has been lower since 2020, where the gap comes from, and what it means for a US dollar amount held in Hong Kong dollars.
US inflation picked up again in 2026, and Hong Kong’s interest rates went up with it: the HKMA Base Rate followed the Fed’s September hike within a day. Hong Kong’s prices did not follow. That makes Hong Kong an unusual case, a place where rates are imported from the US but inflation is not.
How far is Hong Kong’s inflation from the US now?
About 1.8 percentage points lower. According to the Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong’s Composite CPI rose 1.9% in the year to September 2026, up from 1.7% in August. US consumer prices rose 3.7% over the same twelve months, up from 3.4% in August, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Hong Kong Composite CPI (1.9%) minus US CPI (3.7%), year on year, September 2026. Both are official headline figures for the same month.
Hong Kong’s figure also crept up in September. The government attributed the rise mainly to faster increases in cross-boundary transport fares and package holiday charges, and said that “consumer price inflation will remain under upward pressure” while oil prices stay high.
How often has Hong Kong been lower since 2020?
In 73 of 78 months. The comparison below uses this site’s monthly data from January 2020 to July 2026, counting only months with a figure for both: the US series has no October 2025 value. The annual averages are simple averages of the monthly year-on-year rates.
How often has Hong Kong been lower since 2020?
Hong Kong CPI / US CPI
Shared linear scale from zero. Selected entries from the table below. Its dates, units, definitions and limitations still apply.
| Year | Hong Kong CPI | US CPI | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 0.26% | 1.25% | −0.99 pp |
| 2021 | 1.58% | 4.68% | −3.10 pp |
| 2022 | 1.89% | 8.00% | −6.11 pp |
| 2023 | 2.10% | 4.15% | −2.05 pp |
| 2024 | 1.73% | 2.95% | −1.22 pp |
| 2025 (11 months) | 1.46% | 2.69% | −1.23 pp |
| 2026 (January–July) | 1.72% | 3.26% | −1.54 pp |
| September 2026 (official, latest) | 1.9% | 3.7% | −1.8 pp |
CapsWindow calculations from BIS consumer price data for Hong Kong and FRED CPIAUCSL for the US, except the last row, which uses the two official releases.
The five months when Hong Kong was at or above the US were March, April, May and June 2020, and January 2021. In April 2020 US inflation fell to 0.31% and in May to 0.20%, while Hong Kong’s was 1.92% and 1.72%. The widest gap in the other direction came in May 2022: 1.28% in Hong Kong against 8.54% in the US, a difference of 7.26 points.
Where does the gap come from?
Mostly from food and housing, which barely moved in Hong Kong. In September 2026 the CPI section table shows basic food 0.2% cheaper than a year earlier and meals out up 1.0%. Housing rose 0.2%: private rents were up 0.4%, while public housing rent was down 6.5%.
Energy is where Hong Kong does look like the US. Electricity, gas and water rose 12.9% from a year earlier and transport 5.2%. In the US, energy prices rose 5.2% in September from August alone, with petrol up 9.1% (BLS). Oil prices have reached both economies; the difference is what happened to everything else.
| Composite CPI component, Hong Kong | Year on year, September 2026 |
|---|---|
| Electricity, gas and water | +12.9% |
| Miscellaneous services | +5.3% |
| Transport | +5.2% |
| Meals out and takeaway food | +1.0% |
| Housing | +0.2% |
| Basic food | −0.2% |
| All items | +1.9% |
The table does not show the weights of each item in the basket, which this note did not verify, so it cannot say how many points each component contributed.
What about core inflation?
The two places measure it differently, so the headline gap is the cleaner comparison. US core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 2.6% in September. Hong Kong’s underlying inflation rate rose 2.1%; it excludes the effect of one-off government relief measures, not food and energy.
The direction of each gap is still informative. In the US, headline inflation (3.7%) is well above core (2.6%), which points to energy as the main source of this year’s rise. In Hong Kong, underlying inflation (2.1%) is above the headline rate (1.9%), because relief measures held down measured prices. By household group, the underlying rate was 1.7% for the lowest-spending households (CPI(A)) and 2.4% for the highest (CPI(C)).
What does the gap mean for your money?
Two things. First, real interest rates. The Base Rate is 4.25% under the formula that links it to the Fed (HKMA daily data, 22 October 2026). Minus September inflation of 1.9%, the simple real policy rate is +2.35 percentage points. For the US, 4.00% minus 3.7% gives +0.30. Our note on the Base Rate gap with the Fed explains the formula.
Second, purchasing power across the two currencies. In most markets a persistent inflation gap tends, over long periods, to be offset at least partly by exchange rate moves; economists call the idea purchasing power parity. The Linked Exchange Rate System keeps that adjustment out of the exchange rate, so it shows up in relative prices instead.
| December 2019 to July 2026 | Change |
|---|---|
| Hong Kong CPI | +9.9% |
| US CPI | +28.7% |
| HKD per USD (monthly average, 7.8045 to 7.8407) | +0.5% |
| Hong Kong CPI relative to US CPI, in one currency | about −15% |
US$1,000 converted at the December 2019 average rate was HK$7,804.5. At the July 2026 rate it was HK$7,840.7, almost the same, but Hong Kong prices had risen 9.9% and US prices 28.7%. Deflated with Hong Kong’s CPI, the converted amount bought about 8.6% less than in 2019; deflated with US CPI, the same US$1,000 bought about 22.3% less in the US. These are CapsWindow calculations from FRED EXHKUS and the CPI series above.
To run the same comparison for your own amount and dates, use the past money calculator.
Compare an amount against local and US benchmarks →
Months and methods differ across the figures in this note. The table from 2020 to July 2026 uses this site's data: Hong Kong's CPI is not seasonally adjusted, while the US series (CPIAUCSL) is seasonally adjusted, so it can differ by a few tenths from the BLS headline rate. October 2025 is missing in the US series and is skipped, not filled in. September 2026 figures come from the two official releases. The two baskets are built from different household spending patterns, and a CPI measures change over time, not the price level in shops. Hong Kong's underlying rate and US core inflation are defined differently. Nothing here predicts future inflation or exchange rates.
Questions & answers
Is Hong Kong's underlying inflation the same as US core inflation?
No. Hong Kong's underlying rate (2.1% in September 2026) removes the effect of all one-off government relief measures. US core inflation (2.6%) removes food and energy. Both are useful, but they answer different questions, so the two numbers should not be read as a like-for-like comparison.
If Hong Kong's interest rates follow the Fed, why doesn't its inflation?
The Linked Exchange Rate System fixes the exchange rate between 7.75 and 7.85 per US dollar, and the HKMA's Base Rate follows a formula tied to the Fed's range. Consumer prices depend on local costs such as rents, wages, food and utility tariffs, and on what Hong Kong imports. In September 2026 basic food prices were 0.2% lower than a year earlier and housing costs 0.2% higher, while electricity, gas and water rose 12.9%.
Has Hong Kong inflation ever been higher than in the US recently?
Yes, in five months since 2020: March to June 2020 and January 2021. In April and May 2020 US inflation fell to about 0.2% to 0.3% as fuel prices collapsed, while Hong Kong's stayed between 1.7% and 1.9%. Since February 2021 Hong Kong has been lower in every month with data for both.
Source
- Hong Kong Government - Consumer Price Indices for September 2026 (22 October 2026) ↗
- Census and Statistics Department - CPI tables for September 2026 (PDF) ↗
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics - Consumer Price Index, September 2026 ↗
- BIS - Consumer prices (Hong Kong series used in this site's data) ↗
- FRED - US CPI for all urban consumers (CPIAUCSL) ↗
- FRED - Hong Kong dollar to US dollar exchange rate (EXHKUS) ↗
- HKMA - Daily figures of interbank liquidity (API) ↗
- HKMA - Linked Exchange Rate System ↗
- CapsWindow - Data & methodology ↗