Notes · English

Hong Kong 2026 GDP growth forecast: how the government and IMF revised it

The IMF now projects 3.8% growth for Hong Kong in 2026 and the government 3.5% to 4.5%, up from 2.1% and 2.5% to 3.5%. Every revision since October 2025 with dates and stated reasons, the actual 5.9% and 4.3% quarters, the Q3 release, and how Korea's forecasts lagged in the same way.

CapsWindowPublished: 29 October 2026

Economic growthForecastsExportsAIOil

Key takeaways

As at 29 October 2026, the IMF projects Hong Kong real GDP growth of 3.8% for 2026 (October 2026 World Economic Outlook), and the HKSAR Government forecasts 3.5% to 4.5% (revised on 14 August 2026). The Financial Secretary wrote on 18 October that the government's own assessment is 'even more positive' than the IMF's.
Both forecasts went up. The IMF's figure rose from 2.1% in October 2025 (as reported) to 2.4% in May 2026 and 3.8% in October, up 1.7 points. The government kept 2.5% to 3.5% in February and May, then raised it by one point in August (CapsWindow calculation of the changes).
Actual growth ran ahead of the forecasts: real GDP grew 5.9% in Q1 and 4.3% in Q2 2026, for 5.1% in the first half, the strongest half-year in nearly five years. Q3 had not been published on 29 October; the advance estimate is listed for 3 November.
The reasons given were global demand for AI-related electronics, which lifted goods exports by 28.9% in real terms in Q2, and visitor arrivals. The Middle East conflict and oil prices were cited as the main downside risk. Korea's forecasts lagged its results in the same way, and Hong Kong's 2025 forecast did too.

Hong Kong started 2026 expecting a moderate year and has spent it raising its numbers. The interesting part is not the latest figure but the order of events: forecasts moved after the quarterly results, not before them.

What is the 2026 growth forecast now?

The IMF projects 3.8% growth for Hong Kong in 2026, and the HKSAR Government forecasts 3.5% to 4.5%. The IMF figure is from the October 2026 World Economic Outlook, which also projects 2.8% for 2027. The government range dates from its half-yearly economic report on 14 August 2026.

3.8%

IMF projection for Hong Kong real GDP growth in 2026, October 2026 World Economic Outlook. Government forecast: 3.5% to 4.5%

The government does not seem to expect the low end. Financial Secretary Paul Chan told the Legislative Council on 7 October that full-year growth could reach 3.5% to 4.5%, and wrote on 18 October that the IMF “has also raised its growth forecast for Hong Kong to 3.8% this year, though our own assessment is even more positive” (Financial Secretary’s blog). Among non-official forecasters, the University of Hong Kong’s APEC Studies Programme projected 4.1% on 15 October (The Standard).

How have the forecasts changed since late 2025?

Every revision CapsWindow could confirm was upward, apart from the government’s decision to hold its range in May.

Visual guide

How have the forecasts changed since late 2025?

October 2025
Institution
IMF (Regional Economic Outlook, as reported)
2026 forecast
2.1%
Stated reason
Not stated in the report found
15 May 2026
Institution
Government, Q1 report
2026 forecast
2.5% to 3.5% (held)
Stated reason
Stronger Q1 but “potential near-term headwinds”; risks tilted to the downside from the Middle East conflict
15 May 2026
Institution
IMF, Article IV staff
2026 forecast
2.4%
Stated reason
Weaker external demand and tighter financial conditions related to the Middle East conflict, partly offset by early-year momentum
13 October 2026
Institution
IMF, World Economic Outlook
2026 forecast
3.8%
Stated reason
Not stated for Hong Kong; globally, upgrades for economies tied to AI supply chains

Selected entries from the table below. Its dates, units, definitions and limitations still apply.

Sources ↓

Date	Institution	2026 forecast	Stated reason
October 2025	IMF (Regional Economic Outlook, as reported)	2.1%	Not stated in the report found
25 February 2026	Government, Budget	2.5% to 3.5%	AI investment supporting Asian trade, the Mainland as key driver, expected US rate cuts
15 May 2026	Government, Q1 report	2.5% to 3.5% (held)	Stronger Q1 but “potential near-term headwinds”; risks tilted to the downside from the Middle East conflict
15 May 2026	IMF, Article IV staff	2.4%	Weaker external demand and tighter financial conditions related to the Middle East conflict, partly offset by early-year momentum
14 August 2026	Government, half-yearly report	3.5% to 4.5%	“Stronger-than-expected actual outturn in the first half”
13 October 2026	IMF, World Economic Outlook	3.8%	Not stated for Hong Kong; globally, upgrades for economies tied to AI supply chains

Sources: China Daily Hong Kong, October 2025; Budget Speech, paragraph 22; Q1 economic report; IMF concluding statement; half-yearly report; RTP (Lusa), 13 October 2026, which reports the rise as 1.2 points from the May figure. CapsWindow could not confirm the IMF’s Hong Kong figures in its January, April and July 2026 publications, so they are left out.

From October 2025 to October 2026 the IMF figure rose 1.7 points. The midpoint of the government range rose from 3.0% to 4.0% (CapsWindow calculations).

How fast has the economy actually grown?

Faster than any of the early forecasts. Real GDP grew 5.9% in the first quarter and 4.3% in the second, giving 5.1% for the first half, which the government called the strongest half-yearly performance in nearly five years.

Quarter	Real GDP, year on year	Seasonally adjusted, quarter on quarter
Q1 2025	3.2%	+1.1%
Q2 2025	3.3%	+0.8%
Q3 2025	3.8%	+0.9%
Q4 2025	4.0%	+1.1%
Q1 2026	5.9%	+2.9%
Q2 2026	4.3%	−0.6%
Q3 2026	Not yet released	Not yet released

Revised figures as published on 14 August 2026 (C&SD tables). The Q2 advance estimate of 4.3% was unchanged on revision.

The third-quarter advance estimate had not been published on 29 October. The Trading Economics calendar lists it for 3 November 2026; CapsWindow could not confirm the date on the C&SD calendar. HKU’s economists estimated 3.7% for Q3, but that is a projection, not a result.

The 4.3% in Q2 came with a seasonally adjusted fall of 0.6% from Q1. Year-on-year growth stayed high because the level had jumped 2.9% in Q1.

Why were the forecasts raised?

The institutions point to exports first. The government’s August report said total goods exports grew 28.9% in real terms in Q2 2026 “thanks to the robust trade flows driven by strong global demand for artificial intelligence (AI)-related electronic products”, after 23.8% in Q1. Exports of services grew 3.4%, helped by visitor arrivals, and private consumption rose 2.8%.

The main brake that institutions cited was the Middle East war. In May the IMF cut its figure to 2.4% partly because of “tighter financial conditions related to the conflict in the Middle East” (IMF concluding statement). The government said the same month that “the impacts of the Middle East conflict on the Hong Kong economy have so far been limited” and that risk to growth was tilted to the downside. By October the Financial Secretary described the global picture as two forces: “the shock of persistently high energy prices driven by war, and the AI wave”.

In the Budget in February, the government also counted on expected US rate cuts. The Fed instead raised rates in September, as covered in our note on the Base Rate gap with the Fed. The forecasts went up regardless, which suggests trade outweighed rates in the institutions’ own explanations.

Does Korea’s experience show the same lag?

Yes, and Hong Kong’s own record does too. The Bank of Korea raised its 2026 growth forecast from 1.8% in November 2025 to 2.0%, 2.6% and then 3.3% in August 2026. Its quarterly forecasts for Q1 to Q3 2026 were 0.9%, 0.2% and 0.3% quarter on quarter; the results were 1.8%, 0.6% and 1.0%, two to three times higher, as chip exports boomed (Kyunghyang Shinmun). In 2025 the direction was reversed: Korea’s forecast fell from 1.9% to 0.8-0.9% and actual growth came in at 1.1%.

Hong Kong’s 2025 forecast followed the same pattern in the upward direction:

Year	Forecast at the start	Forecast changes	Actual growth
Hong Kong 2025	2% to 3% (Budget)	Held in May and August, 3.2% in November	3.5% (February 2026), revised to 3.6%
Hong Kong 2026	2.5% to 3.5% (Budget)	Held in May, 3.5% to 4.5% in August	5.1% in H1; full year not yet known
Korea 2026	1.8% (November 2025)	2.0%, 2.6%, 3.3% (August 2026)	Q1-Q3 quarterly growth 2-3 times the forecasts

Hong Kong sources: May 2025, August 2025 and November 2025 reports; 2025 outturn from news.gov.hk and the August 2026 tables.

In both economies the forecasts caught up with the data after the quarters were published. That matches how official forecasts are built, from the latest outturn plus assumptions. Two years in two economies are an observation, not a rule, and the 2026 full-year result is not yet known.

Forecasts like these also feed into what you might plan for a future expense. To see how different growth assumptions change a target amount in Hong Kong dollars, try the future need calculator.

Estimate a future amount in HKD →

Forecasts are conditional on assumptions and each has its own cut-off date; the IMF's October figure and the government's August range were made with different information. The IMF's October 2025 figure is from its Regional Economic Outlook as reported by China Daily Hong Kong, not from the World Economic Outlook table, and CapsWindow could not confirm the IMF's January, April and July 2026 figures. GDP figures are preliminary and C&SD revises them as more data arrive. The Q3 2026 release date is from a third-party calendar. Korea's figures are quarter-on-quarter and come from a press report. This note was written on 29 October 2026 and does not know the Q3 result or the full-year outcome.

Questions & answers

What is Hong Kong's official 2026 growth forecast?

The HKSAR Government forecasts real GDP growth of 3.5% to 4.5% for 2026, raised on 14 August 2026 from 2.5% to 3.5%. The Financial Secretary repeated the 3.5% to 4.5% figure on 7 October and wrote on 18 October that the government's view is more positive than the IMF's 3.8%. The next scheduled review comes with the third-quarter economic report; in 2025 that was published in mid-November.

When will Hong Kong's third-quarter 2026 GDP be released?

It had not been released on 29 October 2026. The Trading Economics calendar lists the advance estimate for 3 November 2026; CapsWindow could not confirm the date on the C&SD calendar. In 2025 the Q3 advance estimate was published on 31 October and the revised figures and updated forecast on 14 November.

Why did the forecasts go up when the Middle East war pushed up oil prices?

Because exports grew much faster than expected. Goods exports rose 23.8% in real terms in Q1 2026 and 28.9% in Q2, driven by what the government calls strong global demand for AI-related electronic products. The IMF cut its forecast to 2.4% in May, citing the Middle East conflict, then raised it to 3.8% in October. The government said in May that the conflict's impact had so far been limited.

Do forecasts usually lag actual growth?

In the two recent Hong Kong years shown here, yes. In 2025 the government kept 2% to 3% until November and growth came in at 3.5%, later revised to 3.6%. In 2026 it kept 2.5% to 3.5% after a 5.9% first quarter and only raised it after the first half. Korea's central bank followed the same pattern in 2026. Two years are not enough to call this a rule.

Source

Calculators

Future wealth needsFuture wealth needs · HKD Asset growth comparisonAsset growth comparison · HKD

Explore more

Hong Kong GDP vs GNI in 2026: did the terms of trade add to the city's income?Hong Kong's real GNI grew 5.3% in Q2 2026 against real GDP growth of 4.3%. What GDP, GNI and GDI measure, why the gap here comes from overseas investment income rather than export prices, how flat the terms of trade stayed through the AI trade boom, and how this compares with Korea.HKMA Base Rate vs the Fed: why the gap is 25 basis points, and what the October FOMC could changeHong Kong's Base Rate is 4.25%, 25 basis points above the Fed's 4.00% upper bound, because a published formula keeps it there. How the gap compares across Asia, what it looks like after inflation, and what the 27-28 October FOMC could mean.Brent oil in Hong Kong dollars: how high is it in history, and how much has reached petrol prices?Brent averaged HK$916 a barrel in September 2026, the 10th-highest month since 1981 but still below July 2008. Under the peg the Hong Kong dollar added only 0.8% to the rise. Standard petrol is up 20.2% since the end of 2025.Does AI spending push up interest rates? What reaches Hong KongBig Tech plans about US$720-745 billion of capital spending in 2026 and is borrowing heavily to fund it. US real 10-year yields rose 97 basis points this year while inflation expectations rose 11. Under the peg, Hong Kong imports the rate effect; the price effect is muted.Hong Kong's HK$407.9bn surplus: where the money goes, and why the HKD sat near 7.85Hong Kong ran a current account surplus of HK$407.9 billion in 2025, about 12% of GDP, yet the HKD twice drifted to the weak side of the peg. Balance of payments data show residents invested more than the surplus abroad; under the peg the flows show up in HKMA operations, the Aggregate Balance and HIBOR, not the exchange rate.