MPF returns over 10 years: did they beat inflation and money supply in Hong Kong?
Chaining the MPF system's net returns for 2016-2025 gives about 4.47% a year: HK$1 million became about HK$1.55 million. Prices rose 18.3% and Hong Kong dollar M2 rose 53.2% over the same decade, so the MPF beat inflation comfortably but beat money supply by only about 1%, and only because of 2025. Year-by-year figures, what reaches your own account, and 2026 so far.
The MPF made 16.6% in 2025 and has had three positive years in a row. But a single good year says little about a retirement account. The more useful questions are whether a decade of MPF returns kept up with prices and with the growth of money in Hong Kong, and how the system figure relates to what lands in your own account.
How much did HK$1 million grow in 10 years?
To about HK$1.55 million.
HK$1,000,000 compounded at the MPF system's annual net rates of return for 2016-2025: about 1.55 times, or 4.47% a year (CapsWindow calculation)
The annual returns are from MPFA’s Statistical Digest, December 2025, Table II.5.1. They are net of fees and charges and are calculated as money-weighted internal rates of return (IRR) for the whole system. Chaining ten annual IRRs is not the same as a time-weighted 10-year return of any fund; it is best read as an approximation of the average member’s experience. Net assets were about HK$1,553 billion at the end of 2025.
MPFA’s own long-run figure covers a different period: an annualised net return of 4.0% since the MPF began, against annualised inflation of 1.8%, to the end of 2025.
Did it beat inflation?
Yes over the decade, but not in four of the ten years.
Did it beat inflation?
Real return (calculated)
Shared linear scale from zero. Negative values extend left. Selected entries from the table below. Its dates, units, definitions and limitations still apply.
| Year | MPF net return | Inflation (Dec to Dec) | Real return (calculated) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 0.9% | 1.19% | −0.28% |
| 2017 | 22.3% | 1.70% | 20.25% |
| 2018 | −9.3% | 2.51% | −11.52% |
| 2019 | 12.2% | 2.86% | 9.08% |
| 2020 | 11.7% | −0.89% | 12.71% |
| 2021 | −0.3% | 2.40% | −2.64% |
| 2022 | −15.4% | 1.96% | −17.02% |
| 2023 | 3.4% | 2.40% | 0.98% |
| 2024 | 8.6% | 1.41% | 7.09% |
| 2025 | 16.6% | 1.48% | 14.90% |
Returns are from MPFA. Inflation is Hong Kong headline CPI in CapsWindow’s data (a long series linked by the BIS from Census and Statistics Department data), December over the previous December. Real return = (1 + return) ÷ (1 + inflation) − 1.
The MPF lost to inflation in 2016, 2018, 2021 and 2022. The two large falls, 2018 and 2022, cost 11.5% and 17.0% in real terms. Over the full decade the real multiple is about 1.31 times, or 2.73% a year (CapsWindow calculation).
How does it compare with money supply (M2)?
It finished level with M2, about 1.1% ahead, and only because of 2025.
| December 2015 to December 2025 | Multiple | HK$1,000,000 becomes (calculated) |
|---|---|---|
| MPF system net returns, 2016-2025 chained | 1.5491 | HK$1,549,121 |
| Hong Kong dollar M2 | 1.5317 | HK$1,531,662 |
| Consumer prices | 1.1832 | HK$1,183,190 |
| Up to 2024: MPF 2016-2024 | 1.3286 | HK$1,328,577 |
| Up to 2024: M2, Dec 2015 to Dec 2024 | 1.4699 | HK$1,469,854 |
M2 is Hong Kong dollar M2 at month-end from the HKMA Monthly Statistical Bulletin, HK$5,765.5 billion in December 2015 and HK$8,830.9 billion in December 2025, as held in CapsWindow’s data. M2 measures the stock of money, not anyone’s cost of living, so “beating M2” means only that the MPF grew faster than Hong Kong dollar money balances.
Cut the decade off at the end of 2024 and the MPF was behind M2 (1.33 times against 1.47 times), though still ahead of prices (1.17 times). The 16.6% return in 2025 alone moved it from behind to just ahead.
What reaches your own account?
The system return is an average across all members and all funds. Your own account can be quite different, for three reasons.
First, you choose your funds, and fund types have produced very different results. As at the end of June 2026, MPFA reported annualised returns since inception of 5.1% for equity funds and 4.8% for mixed assets funds, against inflation of 1.8%. For the Default Investment Strategy, launched on 1 April 2017, the Core Accumulation Fund returned 7.3% a year and the Age 65 Plus Fund 2.7%.
Second, timing matters. A money-weighted return depends on when money went in and out. Someone who contributed heavily just before 2018 or 2022 had a different experience from someone whose largest contributions came later.
Third, fees. MPF returns are reported after fees, and fees have been falling. MPFA said on 3 May 2026 that all 12 trustees had moved to the eMPF Platform and that the average administration fee had fallen from 0.58% to 0.37%, and to 0.29% from 1 April 2026, a 22% cut, with 0.20%-0.25% expected later and savings of HK$50 billion projected over 10 years (The Standard). Default Investment Strategy funds have a fee cap of 0.85% (MPFA, 6 January 2026).
What about 2026 so far?
Positive so far, according to private trackers; MPFA publishes system returns only for full years.
| Item | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 return | 16.6% (provisional figure 16.5%) | MPFA digest; MPFA, 6 January 2026 |
| Average fund return, January to September 2026 | +6.2% (382 funds); September −1.47% | MPF Ratings, reported by SCMP |
| Gains, January to September 2026 | about HK$96.9 billion; more than HK$20,000 per member on average | MPF Ratings, reported by SCMP |
| Total assets, end-June 2026 | about HK$1,670 billion, a quarterly record | MPFA, 18 August 2026 |
| Inflation over the past year (to June 2026) | 2.0% | MPFA digest, June 2026 |
The year-to-date figures are from SCMP on 7 October 2026, citing MPF Ratings, and are not an official system return. In CapsWindow’s data, consumer prices rose 0.82% from December 2025 to July 2026, and Hong Kong dollar M2 rose 5.13% from December 2025 to June 2026.
Two structural changes are under way. According to MPFA, the offsetting arrangement was abolished on 1 May 2025, and the first stage of full portability starts on 21 December 2026, covering about 1 million people who joined a new employer on or after 1 May 2025, with applications for 2026 transfers accepted from 21 to 31 December. The June 2026 digest has the latest quarterly statistics.
How big is the gap over 30 years of contributions?
The following is an assumption-based illustration, not a forecast. Contribute HK$3,000 a month for 30 years: HK$1,080,000 in total.
| Assumed annual return | After 30 years (nominal, calculated) | Multiple of contributions |
|---|---|---|
| 4.47% (MPF 2016-2025 average) | about HK$2,231,000 | 2.07 times |
| 2% (assumption) | about HK$1,474,000 | 1.36 times |
The calculation assumes contributions at the end of each month and monthly compounding at the twelfth root of the annual return, and ignores additional fees, taxes and wage growth (CapsWindow calculation). If prices also rose 1.70% a year (the 2016-2025 average, used here as an assumption), the 4.47% case would be worth about HK$1,347,000 in today’s money and the 2% case about HK$890,000, less than the amount contributed.
To try your own amounts, horizon and return assumptions, use the future need calculator.
Estimate a future amount in HKD →
The 10-year figure chains MPFA's annual money-weighted system returns. It approximates the average member's experience and is not the time-weighted return of any fund. Inflation is measured December to December and M2 is month-end Hong Kong dollar M2. Your own result depends on your fund choice, contribution timing and fees. The 2026 year-to-date figures come from a private tracker and are not official. Past returns do not guarantee future returns, and this note is not investment or retirement planning advice.
Questions & answers
What is the MPF's average annual return since it started?
MPFA puts the annualised net rate of return of the MPF System since inception at 4.0% to the end of 2025, after fees and charges, compared with annualised inflation of 1.8% over the same period.
What was the MPF return in 2025?
16.6%, according to MPFA's December 2025 Statistical Digest. MPFA's provisional figure in January 2026 was 16.5%. It was the third consecutive year of positive returns, after 3.4% in 2023 and 8.6% in 2024.
Did the MPF beat money supply over 10 years?
Only just. Chaining the system's net returns for 2016-2025 turns HK$1 million into about HK$1.549 million, while Hong Kong dollar M2 grew 1.532 times over the same decade, a margin of about 1.1% (CapsWindow calculation). Up to 2024 the MPF was behind M2; the 16.6% return in 2025 reversed that. Against consumer prices (1.18 times) the MPF was well ahead, though it lost to inflation in 2016, 2018, 2021 and 2022.
How much have MPF fees fallen?
MPFA said in May 2026 that all 12 trustees had moved to the eMPF Platform and that the average administration fee had fallen from 0.58% to 0.37%, and to 0.29% from 1 April 2026. Fund management fees are separate and vary by fund; Default Investment Strategy funds have a fee cap of 0.85%.
Source
- MPFA - MPF Schemes Statistical Digest, December 2025 (Table II.5.1, net rate of return by period) ↗
- MPFA - MPF Schemes Statistical Digest, June 2026 ↗
- MPFA - Press release, 6 January 2026 (2025 provisional return) ↗
- MPFA - Press release, 3 May 2026 (eMPF onboarding and fees) ↗
- MPFA - Press release, 18 August 2026 (MPF assets at end-June 2026) ↗
- MPFA - Press release, 25 October 2026 (full portability) ↗
- The Standard - eMPF platform completes full onboarding, admin fee drops to 0.29% ↗
- South China Morning Post - Hong Kong's MPF has gained nearly HK$100b this year (7 October 2026) ↗
- HKMA - Monthly Statistical Bulletin Table 2.2.1 (money supply) ↗
- BIS - Consumer prices (Hong Kong headline CPI, long series) ↗