Hong Kong 10-year bond yield: highest since February 2025, yet 140th of 359 months
Hong Kong's 10-year government bond yield averaged 3.71% in September 2026, the highest monthly average since February 2025. Against 359 months since 1996 it ranks 140th, and it still sits below the HKMA Base Rate of 4.25%.
Long-term interest rates are rising almost everywhere in 2026, and Hong Kong’s 10-year yield has followed. Whether that counts as “high” depends on the yardstick: recent months, the past three decades, or inflation.
What is Hong Kong’s 10-year yield now?
Hong Kong’s 10-year government bond yield averaged 3.71% in September 2026, based on ADB AsianBondsOnline daily data (data: Bloomberg).
Hong Kong 10-year government bond yield, September 2026 monthly average. Highest monthly average since February 2025
| Point | 10-year yield |
|---|---|
| December 2025 (monthly average) | 2.981% |
| March 2026 (monthly average) | 2.803% |
| June 2026 (monthly average) | 3.275% |
| September 2026 (monthly average) | 3.710% |
| 2 January 2026 (daily) | 3.122% |
| 7 October 2026 (daily) | 4.045% |
The rise since December is 73 basis points, and 71 basis points over twelve months. The climb was not steady: yields fell from January to March and then rose for six straight months. In daily data, the 4.048% reached on 6 October is the highest close since 7 November 2023.
Where does 3.71% rank in Hong Kong’s history?
Of 359 monthly averages from November 1996 to September 2026, September 2026 ranks 140th. In 61% of months the yield was lower, and in 139 months it was higher.
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample | November 1996 to September 2026, 359 months |
| Rank of September 2026 | 140th |
| Share of months lower | 61.0% |
| Last month higher | February 2025 (3.725%) |
| Highest | July 1998 (10.15%) |
| Lowest | August 2020 (0.464%) |
The record comes from the Asian financial crisis, when the HKMA defended the peg and long rates spiked. The low came during the pandemic, when US rates were near zero and Hong Kong’s followed.
How has the annual average moved since 2000?
How has the annual average moved since 2000?
Average 10-year yield
Shared linear scale from zero. Selected entries from the table below. Its dates, units, definitions and limitations still apply.
| Year | Average 10-year yield |
|---|---|
| 2000 | 7.37% |
| 2005 | 3.98% |
| 2007 | 4.20% |
| 2008 | 2.77% |
| 2012 | 1.00% |
| 2016 | 1.27% |
| 2020 | 0.75% |
| 2022 | 2.82% |
| 2023 | 3.62% |
| 2025 | 3.20% |
| 2026 (January to September) | 3.19% |
Two decades of mostly falling yields ended in 2022. Since then Hong Kong has been in a 3 to 4% range, close to where it was before the 2008 crisis. The 2026 average is still slightly below 2025 because of the dip in the first quarter.
What is left after inflation?
The real 10-year yield, the nominal yield minus year-on-year consumer price inflation, is about +2.06 percentage points: 3.71% (September 2026) minus 1.65% (July 2026, Composite CPI). The months do not match because September prices had not been published when the data was assembled. The August Composite CPI, published on 23 September, rose 1.7%, which leaves about +2.0 points.
Hong Kong real 10-year yield: September 2026 yield minus July 2026 consumer price inflation
History shows how far this measure can swing. In August 1999 it reached +13.68 points, because Hong Kong was in deflation while yields stayed high. In July 2011 it fell to −5.67 points, with inflation running well above a yield held down by US policy. Today’s reading sits in a calm middle.
What does it mean for borrowers, savers and bondholders?
The Base Rate was raised to 4.25% on 17 September 2026, one day after the US Federal Reserve moved. The 10-year yield sits below it.
| Comparison | Gap |
|---|---|
| September 2026 average (3.71%) minus Base Rate (4.25%) | −54 bp |
| 7 October 2026 daily (4.045%) minus Base Rate (4.25%) | −20 bp |
| Months with the 10-year below the month-end Base Rate, September 1998 to August 2026 | 131 of 336 |
| Current run below the Base Rate | Every month since November 2022 |
That looks odd but has a mechanical cause. The Base Rate formula takes the higher of the US target range lower bound plus 50 basis points, or the average of overnight and one-month HIBOR. On 17 September the US leg was 4.25% and the HIBOR leg 2.50%, so the Base Rate is pinned above the market. One-month HIBOR averaged 2.90% in September (HKMA).
- Borrowers: most Hong Kong mortgages float with HIBOR or prime, so the 10-year yield is an indirect signal rather than a price you pay.
- Savers: time deposit rates follow HIBOR more closely than the Base Rate or the 10-year yield.
- Bondholders: a rise in yields lowers the price of bonds already held. For a 10-year bond, each one-point rise in yield cuts the price by roughly 8%, as an approximation.
To see how a sum you will need in future changes under different growth assumptions, try the future need calculator.
Estimate a future amount in HKD →
The monthly series joins two sources. November 1996 to December 2005 uses the HKMA Exchange Fund Note 10-year yield (period average). From January 2006 it uses monthly averages of ADB AsianBondsOnline daily data, sourced from Bloomberg. Where both overlap (2006 to 2015) they differ by 2.3 basis points on average and 5.4 at most. The HKMA's own 10-year Exchange Fund Note ended in February 2015, and its daily government bond benchmark data ends in January 2025, which is why recent months use ADB. The ADB series is flat from August to October 2019. Base Rate comparisons use month-end values (BIS) against monthly averages.
Questions & answers
What is Hong Kong's 10-year government bond yield now?
The September 2026 monthly average was 3.71%, from ADB AsianBondsOnline data sourced from Bloomberg. The latest daily reading in our data is 4.045% on 7 October 2026. Both are higher than at the start of the year, when the daily yield was 3.122% on 2 January.
Is 3.71% high for Hong Kong?
It is the highest monthly average since February 2025, but not high by Hong Kong's own history. It ranks 140th of 359 months since November 1996, and yields were above 4% for most of 1996 to 2007.
Why is the 10-year yield below the Base Rate?
The Base Rate is not set by the bond market. Under the Linked Exchange Rate System it follows a formula: 50 basis points above the lower end of the US federal funds target range, or the HIBOR average if that is higher. In September 2026 the US leg (4.25%) was well above the HIBOR leg (2.50%), so the Base Rate sits above market rates of every maturity.
Does this matter for my mortgage?
Only indirectly. Most Hong Kong home loans are priced off HIBOR or banks' prime rates rather than the 10-year yield. The 10-year yield matters more for bondholders and for long-term fixed-rate products.
Source
- HKMA - Exchange Fund Bills and Notes yields, period average (API) ↗
- ADB AsianBondsOnline (data: Bloomberg) - Hong Kong, China bond market ↗
- HKMA - Adjustment of Base Rate, 17 September 2026 ↗
- HKMA - Base Rate ↗
- HKMA - HIBOR, period average (API) ↗
- Hong Kong Government - Consumer Price Indices for August 2026 ↗
- BIS - Central bank policy rates ↗