US stock returns in pesos: S&P 500 +29.4% as the peso weakened 7.5%
From August 2025 to August 2026 the S&P 500 rose 20.3% in US dollars but 29.4% in Philippine pesos, because the peso weakened 7.5%. The formula, a ₱100,000 example, timing, and the hedging math with the BSP at 5%.
A weak peso makes headlines as bad news, and for fuel prices and import bills it is. For Filipinos who own US stocks, the same move worked the other way: every dollar of gains converted into more pesos. Here is how large that effect was over the past year, how to calculate it for your own amount, and why it cannot be counted on to repeat.
How much did the peso weaken against the US dollar in 2025–2026?
On a monthly-average basis, the peso weakened 7.5% against the US dollar between August 2025 and August 2026, from 57.1333 to 61.4451 pesos per dollar (BIS bilateral rates). A higher number means a weaker peso.
| Point in time | PHP per US$ | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| August 2025 | 57.1333 | Monthly average |
| December 2025 | 58.8808 | Monthly average |
| February 2026 (strongest month of 2026) | 58.1784 | Monthly average |
| July 2026 (weakest month of 2026) | 61.6035 | Monthly average |
| August 2026 | 61.4451 | Monthly average |
The daily picture is more extreme. On the BSP reference rate, the peso’s weakest level before 2026 was 59.212 on 11 December 2025. It went past that on 8 January 2026, touched its strongest day of the year at 57.554 on 27 February, and then weakened to 62.850 on 16 September 2026 (BSP daily reference rates). The rate for 29 September 2026 was 62.504 (BSP Reference Exchange Rate Bulletin).
The two tables in this note use two different series and are not mixed. The monthly averages above come from the BIS bilateral series that CapsWindow uses for all nine currencies. The daily figures are the BSP's own reference rates. The BSP also publishes its own monthly averages, which differ slightly: August 2026 is 61.328 on the BSP series against 61.4451 on the BIS series. All return calculations in the next two sections use the BIS monthly series only.
How much did US stocks return in pesos compared with dollars?
Between the August 2025 and August 2026 monthly averages, the S&P 500 returned +20.3% in US dollars and +29.4% in pesos (FRED SP500; FRED NASDAQ100; BIS). The Nasdaq-100 gap was similar.
How much did US stocks return in pesos compared with dollars?
In pesos
Shared linear scale from zero. Selected entries from the table below. Its dates, units, definitions and limitations still apply.
| Period (monthly averages) | Index | In US$ | In pesos | Pesos per US$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2025 → Aug 2026 | S&P 500 | +20.3% | +29.4% | +7.5% |
| Aug 2025 → Aug 2026 | Nasdaq-100 | +25.8% | +35.2% | +7.5% |
| Dec 2025 → Aug 2026 | S&P 500 | +12.5% | +17.4% | +4.4% |
| Dec 2025 → Aug 2026 | Nasdaq-100 | +16.0% | +21.0% | +4.4% |
S&P 500, August 2025 to August 2026 monthly averages, in US dollars and in Philippine pesos (FRED; BIS)
About nine percentage points of the peso return came from the exchange rate rather than from American companies. That is the part of the result that depends on the peso, not on Wall Street.
How do you calculate a US-stock return in pesos?
Multiply the dollar return by the currency change: peso return = (1 + return in US$) × (1 + change in pesos per US$) − 1. For the S&P 500 over the year to August 2026, the index average rose from 6,408.95 to 7,711.32 (×1.2032) and the peso rate from 57.1333 to 61.4451 (×1.0755), so 1.2032 × 1.0755 − 1 = +29.4%.
Applied to an amount a local investor might actually use, calculated on the same monthly averages and ignoring fees, spreads, dividends and taxes:
| ₱100,000 in August 2025 | Value in August 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | about ₱129,402 | +29.4% |
| Nasdaq-100 | about ₱135,241 | +35.2% |
| US dollars only, no stocks | about ₱107,547 | +7.5% |
Step by step for the S&P 500: ₱100,000 buys about US$1,750.29 at 57.1333. A 20.32% index gain takes that to about US$2,105.97, which converts back at 61.4451 to about ₱129,402. You can repeat the currency part for other amounts and months with the calculator at the end of this note.
Does it matter when you bought?
Yes, and the peso has an unusual pattern this year: it has not rebounded from its low. The table below is calculated separately from the monthly tables, using BSP daily reference rates and FRED daily index closes, measured to 25 September 2026 (reference rate 62.756).
| Bought on | Peso move to 25 Sep 2026 | S&P 500 in US$ | S&P 500 in pesos | Nasdaq-100 in US$ | Nasdaq-100 in pesos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Sep 2025 (one year) | +9.3% | +17.2% | +28.2% | +25.5% | +37.1% |
| 27 Feb 2026 (peso’s strongest day of 2026) | +9.0% | +12.6% | +22.7% | +22.6% | +33.7% |
| 16 Sep 2026 (peso’s weakest day of 2026) | −0.1% | +2.5% | +2.4% | +5.7% | +5.6% |
Someone who converted pesos when the peso was strongest, in late February, picked up about nine points of currency gain on top of the index. Someone who bought at the weakest point has, so far, gained or lost almost nothing on the currency, but that window is only seven trading days long. In markets where the currency did bounce back in the third quarter, buying at the weak point cut returns noticeably. The same would happen here if the peso strengthened; the table records what has happened, not what will.
How do Filipinos actually hold US stocks?
The most common route through a bank is a unit investment trust fund (UITF) that feeds into a US exchange-traded fund. The BPI US Equity Index Feeder Fund, for example, invests in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, has a US-dollar class with a US$100 minimum and a peso class with a ₱1,000 minimum, and charges a trust fee of 1.50% a year. A fee of that size takes about 1.5 points a year off the returns shown above.
Apps are a newer route. In June 2025 the Securities and Exchange Commission admitted GCash’s GStocks Global (for a 24-month test with up to 2 million participants, in partnership with EasyEquities) and Pluang PH (six months, up to 1,000 users, fractional US shares from one dollar) into its regulatory sandbox for trading selected US stocks (BusinessWorld). A sandbox is a supervised trial; the SEC decides at the end whether a service may be offered to the public.
Whichever route you use, the currency math is the same unless the product hedges it. A peso class is a way to pay in pesos; it does not by itself say whether the dollar exposure is hedged. The fund’s own documents answer that.
Hedged or unhedged: what is the cost with the BSP at 5%?
A currency hedge locks in today’s exchange rate for later, and its cost or benefit is roughly the gap between the two countries’ interest rates. The BSP Monetary Board raised its target reverse repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 5.00% on 27 August 2026, its third increase since April (BSP). The US federal funds target range has been 3.75–4.00% since the Federal Reserve’s September 2026 decision (FRED).
Because peso rates are higher than dollar rates, a hedge that sells dollars forward for pesos would, as an approximation, earn about 1.00 to 1.25 percentage points a year rather than cost it. Actual forward prices, bank spreads and fund-level arrangements differ, so treat that as an order of magnitude. The larger point is the trade-off: over the past year a fully hedged position would have given up the 7.5% currency gain in exchange for that interest pickup. Hedging is a decision about whether you want exposure to the peso’s direction, and CapsWindow does not forecast exchange rates.
Who else gains or loses when the peso weakens?
Anyone who receives dollars gains in peso terms. A US$500 remittance converted at the August 2026 monthly average of 61.4451 gives ₱30,723, about ₱2,156 more than at the August 2025 average (calculated). Firms that earn dollars and pay costs in pesos, such as outsourcing companies and exporters, are in the same position.
Anyone who pays in dollars loses. A US$1,000 trip abroad cost about ₱4,312 more at the August 2026 average than a year earlier. Fuel and other imports follow the same arithmetic, which is why the BSP has pointed to energy import costs in its recent statements. Why the peso fell even though remittances keep arriving is the subject of the companion note on the Philippine deficit.
What these numbers leave out
Monthly averages, price indices, no costs. The main tables compare monthly averages, not the price you actually traded at. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 series are price indices without dividends. Bank or app FX spreads, trust fees, US withholding tax on dividends and Philippine taxes are all excluded, and each lowers the peso return.
Two FX series. BIS monthly averages drive the calculations; BSP daily reference rates appear only in the daily table and are labelled as such. Data & methodology explains the series.
No forecast. This site does not forecast exchange rates. A currency gain that helped over one year can reverse over the next.
Questions & answers
How much did US stocks return in pesos over the past year?
Between the August 2025 and August 2026 monthly averages, the S&P 500 returned +29.4% in pesos and the Nasdaq-100 +35.2%. In US dollars the same indices returned +20.3% and +25.8%. The difference comes from the peso weakening 7.5% against the dollar over that year. These are price returns without dividends, fees or taxes.
Why is my US stock return higher in pesos than in dollars?
Because each dollar you hold buys more pesos when you convert back. The peso return equals (1 + dollar return) × (1 + change in pesos per dollar) − 1. With the S&P 500 up 20.32% and the peso-per-dollar rate up 7.55%, that is 1.2032 × 1.0755 − 1 = +29.4%.
Does a peso class of a US equity feeder fund remove the currency effect?
Not by itself. A peso class lets you subscribe and redeem in pesos without a dollar account, but whether its currency exposure is hedged is a separate question that the fund's own documents answer. If it is unhedged, its peso return follows the same formula as a direct holding.
Should I hedge the peso on US stocks?
That is a choice about currency direction, not a free gain. With the BSP policy rate at 5.00% and the US federal funds target at 3.75–4.00%, a hedge from dollars back to pesos would roughly earn the interest-rate gap of about 1 percentage point a year, but it would also have removed the 7.5% currency gain of the past year. CapsWindow does not forecast exchange rates.
Who else benefits when the peso weakens?
Anyone who receives dollars. A US$500 remittance converted at the August 2026 monthly average of 61.4451 gives ₱30,723, about ₱2,156 more than at the August 2025 average. Importers, fuel buyers and travellers pay more for the same dollar amount.
Source
- CapsWindow · Data & methodology ↗
- FRED · S&P 500 (SP500), daily close ↗
- FRED · Nasdaq-100 (NASDAQ100), daily close ↗
- BIS · Bilateral US dollar exchange rates (monthly average) ↗
- BSP · Philippine peso per US dollar, daily reference rate (pesodollar.xlsx) ↗
- BSP · Reference Exchange Rate Bulletin ↗
- BSP · Monetary Board raises target RRP rate by 25 basis points (27 August 2026) ↗
- FRED · Federal funds target range, upper and lower limit ↗
- BPI Wealth · BPI US Equity Index Feeder Fund ↗
- BusinessWorld · Pluang PH, GCash join SEC regulatory sandbox for US stock investing (3 June 2025) ↗