Global bond yields 2026: US, UK, Germany and Japan at multi-year highs. Where is Singapore?
Ten-year yields in the US, UK, Germany and Japan hit their highest levels since 2002, 2007, 2011 and 1996 in 2026. Singapore's 10-year SGS yield rose only about 35 basis points this year and remains below the middle of its own history.
Long-term borrowing costs in the largest bond markets have climbed to levels not seen for 15 to 30 years. Singapore’s ten-year yield has moved in the same direction but far less. This note sets the four big markets side by side and then places Singapore among them.
How far did the four markets rise?
All figures are from each country’s official yield curve.
How far did the four markets rise?
10-year, latest
Shared linear scale from zero. Selected entries from the table below. Its dates, units, definitions and limitations still apply.
| Country | 10-year, start of 2026 | 10-year, latest | 2026 high | Highest since |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 4.19% (2 January) | 5.28% (7 October) | 5.31% (5 October) | 2002 |
| United Kingdom | 4.517% (2 January) | 5.337% (6 October) | 5.383% (28 September) | 2007 |
| Germany | 2.96% (2 January) | 3.55% (7 October) | 3.69% (28 September) | 2011 |
| Japan | 2.111% (5 January) | 3.111% (7 October) | 3.111% (7 October) | 1996 |
| Singapore | 2.13% (2 January) | 2.48% (7 October) | 2.61% (28 September) | April 2025 |
Sources: US Treasury, Bank of England, Bundesbank, Japan Ministry of Finance. The Singapore row uses ADB AsianBondsOnline daily data (data: Bloomberg), not the official month-end series.
What happened at the 30-year end?
The longest bonds moved even further. The US 30-year reached 5.67% on 7 October, the highest since 2002. The UK 30-year passed 6% intraday on 1 October, for the first time since 1998 according to reports. Germany’s 30-year reached 4.03% on 29 September and 1 October, the highest since April 2011. Japan’s 30-year reached 4.168% on 6 October, the highest since it was first issued in 1999.
Why did yields rise everywhere at once?
| Explanation | Evidence |
|---|---|
| Oil and inflation | The Iran war began on 28 February 2026. Brent futures went from about US$70 before the war to an intraday US$126.41 on 30 April and about US$105 on 8 October. US CPI was 3.4% in August (energy +16.3%), UK 3.1% in August, euro area 3.8% in September (flash, highest since September 2023) |
| Government bond supply | Germany plans a record of about €525.5 billion in 2026 issuance. Japan’s FY2027 new bond issuance is put at about ¥40 trillion against ¥32.7 trillion in FY2026, with debt service assumed at a 3.8% rate (The Edge Malaysia, citing Bloomberg). UK gilt issuance is £246.2 billion in 2026-27. The US deficit was about US$2 trillion in the first 11 months of FY2026 |
| Term premium | The New York Fed ACM ten-year term premium went from 0.790% on 2 January to 0.455% on 29 June and 0.962% on 5 October, the highest since July 2014 |
New York Fed ACM ten-year term premium, 5 October 2026, highest since July 2014
The three overlap. Oil feeds inflation, inflation makes long bonds riskier, and more supply has to be absorbed by investors who want more compensation for that risk.
Why is France now paying more than Italy? (updated 19 October)
Inside the euro area, the sharpest move since early September has been in France. Its 10-year yield closed at 4.79% on 16 October, 137 basis points above Germany’s, against 85 basis points on 2 September (ideal-investisseur, Banque de France and Bundesbank data).
| Date | France 10-year | Germany 10-year | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 September 2026 | 4.24% | 3.39% | 84.9 bp |
| 2 October 2026 | 4.90% | 3.43% | 146.9 bp (widest in a year) |
| 16 October 2026 | 4.79% | 3.42% | 137.4 bp |
Intraday on 2 October the French yield touched 4.994%, the highest since 2002 (Reuters via Boursorama). Italy’s 10-year was about 4.50% on 16 October, so France now pays more than Italy to borrow for ten years (Trading Economics). These are benchmark closing yields; the Germany row in the first table comes from the Bundesbank’s yield curve instead, so the two German figures do not match exactly and should not be mixed.
The three countries share one central bank rate, so the extra cost is a premium attached to France. Its government wants to bring the deficit from 5.4% of GDP in 2026 to 5.0% in 2027 (Euronews), and the minority government faces its first budget vote in the National Assembly on 20 October. Investors are pricing the budget and the politics of passing it, not a change in ECB policy. For comparison, Singapore’s 10-year SGS yield was 2.34% on 16 October on MAS data, 245 basis points below France, although the IMF puts Singapore’s gross debt ratio above France’s. Why a higher debt ratio can come with a lower yield.
How far are long yields above policy rates?
| Market | Policy rate | 10-year minus policy |
|---|---|---|
| United States | 3.75-4.00% (raised 16 September 2026) | +1.28 points (against the upper bound) |
| United Kingdom | 3.75% (unchanged this year) | +1.59 points |
| Germany (euro area deposit rate) | 2.50% (raised in September, second rise this year) | +1.05 points |
| Japan | 1.25% (18 September 2026) | +1.86 points |
| Singapore | none: MAS uses the exchange rate band | not applicable; 10-year minus 2-year was +65 bp in August 2026 |
In all four large markets the long end sits well above the policy rate, a sign that investors want extra return for long-dated risk. Singapore cannot be put on the same footing. MAS raised the band’s rate of appreciation very slightly in July 2026, and its next statement is due in October.
Where does Singapore sit in this wave?
Singapore moved with the wave in direction, not in size.
Change in the 10-year SGS yield from 2 January to 7 October 2026 (2.13% to 2.48%, ADB daily data, Bloomberg)
| Measure | Singapore |
|---|---|
| Official 10-year, end of August 2026 | 2.35% (MAS via SingStat) |
| Rank among 339 month-ends since June 1998 | 208th |
| Change since end of December 2025 (2.22%) | +13 bp |
| Change over 12 months | +52 bp |
| September 2026 average (ADB, Bloomberg) | 2.45% |
While the US, UK, German and Japanese yields set multi-decade highs, Singapore’s official month-end figure is at its highest only since May 2025. Several features may help explain the gap, though this note does not test them: a currency on an appreciating path, inflation of 1.76% in April and 2.3% in August, and a policy framework that does not rely on an interest rate. The 28 September daily high of 2.61% shows Singapore was not fully insulated.
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What are the limits of this comparison?
Each country's yield comes from a different official curve, and Singapore's 2026 path uses ADB daily data (Bloomberg) because the official SingStat series is month-end and ends in August. Start and end dates differ by a few days across countries. The 30-year UK figure is from press reports. The reasons listed for higher yields are explanations offered by markets and institutions, not measured contributions.
- The France section added on 19 October uses daily benchmark closes compiled by ideal-investisseur from Banque de France and Bundesbank data, and reflects the position before the French budget vote on 20 October.
Questions & answers
How high are US, UK, German and Japanese ten-year yields in 2026?
The US 10-year reached 5.31% at the close on 5 October 2026, the highest since 2002. The UK peaked at 5.383% on 28 September (highest since 2007), Germany at 3.69% on 28 September (highest since 2011) and Japan at 3.111% on 7 October (highest since 1996). Each comes from that country's official yield curve.
Did Singapore's bond yields rise as much?
No. On ADB daily data (Bloomberg), the 10-year SGS yield went from 2.13% on 2 January to 2.48% on 7 October 2026, about 35 basis points, against 59 to 109 basis points in the four larger markets. Its 2026 daily high was 2.61% on 28 September.
Why are long-term yields rising worldwide?
Three explanations are commonly given: higher oil prices and inflation after the Iran war began on 28 February 2026, record or near-record government bond issuance in Germany, Japan, the UK and the US, and a rise in the term premium investors demand for holding long bonds. They overlap and their relative weight is debated.
Why is France, and not the rest of the euro area, under pressure?
France shares the ECB's 2.50% deposit rate with Germany and Italy, so the gap is a premium on France itself. Its spread over Germany widened from 85 basis points on 2 September to 137 on 16 October as a minority government tried to pass a 2027 budget that cuts the deficit from 5.4% to 5.0% of GDP. Italy yielded about 4.50%, below France's 4.79%.
Source
- US Department of the Treasury - Daily Treasury par yield curve rates ↗
- Bank of England - Interactive database, nominal par yields ↗
- Deutsche Bundesbank - Interest rates and yields ↗
- Ministry of Finance Japan - JGB interest rates ↗
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York - ACM term premia ↗
- The Edge Malaysia - Japan FY2027 bond issuance and debt-service assumptions ↗
- SingStat Table Builder M700071 - Government securities 10-year and 2-year bond yields, end of period (source: MAS) ↗
- ADB AsianBondsOnline (data: Bloomberg) - 10-year local currency government bond yields ↗
- MAS - Monetary Policy Statement, 27 July 2026 (via Mondo Visione) ↗
- ideal-investisseur - OAT-Bund spread, daily table (Banque de France and Bundesbank data) ↗
- Boursorama (Reuters) - OAT touches highest level since 2002 ↗