Global bond yields 2026: US, UK, Germany and Japan at multi-year highs — where the Philippines stands
Ten-year yields in the US, UK, Germany and Japan are at their highest in 15 to 30 years. The Philippine 10-year rose more than any of them in 2026, by 193 basis points to 7.99%. The causes, the numbers and the limits of the comparison.
October 2026 began with the four largest government bond markets all at multi-year highs at once. The 30-year US Treasury yield passed 5.6%, Japan’s 30-year set a record since the bond was first issued, and long gilt yields touched levels last seen in the late 1990s. The Philippine 10-year moved too, and by more.
How high are long-term yields in the four large markets?
How high are long-term yields in the four large markets?
Latest
Shared linear scale from zero. Selected entries from the table below. Its dates, units, definitions and limitations still apply.
| Country | 10-year at the start of 2026 | Latest | 2026 high | Highest since |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 4.19% (2 Jan) | 5.28% (7 Oct) | 5.31% (5 Oct) | May 2002 |
| United Kingdom | 4.517% (2 Jan) | 5.337% (6 Oct) | 5.383% (28 Sep) | July 2007 |
| Germany | 2.96% (2 Jan) | 3.55% (7 Oct) | 3.69% (28 Sep) | April 2011 |
| Japan | 2.111% (5 Jan) | 3.111% (7 Oct) | 3.111% (7 Oct) | 1996 |
| Philippines | 6.05% (2 Jan) | 7.99% (7 Oct) | 7.99% (7 Oct) | November 2018 |
Sources: US Treasury, Bank of England, Bundesbank (Svensson curve), Ministry of Finance Japan, and for the Philippines ADB AsianBondsOnline (data: Bloomberg).
Philippine 10-year, 2 January to 7 October 2026 (6.05% to 7.99%). US +109, Japan +100, UK +82, Germany +59 over similar dates
What happened at 30 years?
At 30 years, several markets set their own records:
| Country | 30-year | Note |
|---|---|---|
| United States | 5.67% (7 Oct) | highest since 2002 |
| United Kingdom | above 6% intraday (1 Oct, reported) | first time since 1998 |
| Germany | 4.03% (29 Sep and 1 Oct) | highest since April 2011 |
| Japan | 4.168% (6 Oct) | highest since the 30-year was first issued in 1999 |
The Philippine curve behaved differently at the very long end. On 2 October, the 20-year and 25-year yields on the BVAL reference rates were about 7.50%, slightly below the 10-year at 7.66%, according to BusinessWorld. In that week the rise was concentrated in short and medium maturities, where expectations of BSP increases show up first; the 10-year then jumped on 6 and 7 October.
Why are yields rising everywhere?
Three forces, which overlap.
Oil and inflation. The Iran war began on 28 February 2026. Brent futures went from about US$70 a barrel before the war to an intraday high of US$126.41 on 30 April (reported), and were around US$105 on 8 October. US consumer prices rose 3.4% in the year to August, with energy up 16.3%. UK inflation was 3.1% in August, and the euro area’s September flash estimate was 3.8%, its highest since September 2023.
Government bond supply. Germany plans record issuance of about €525.5 billion in 2026. Japan’s new government bond issuance for fiscal 2027 is reported at about ¥40 trillion, up from ¥32.7 trillion (Bloomberg via The Edge). The UK plans £246.2 billion of gilt sales in 2026-27, and the US federal deficit was about US$2 trillion in the first 11 months of fiscal 2026.
Term premium. The New York Fed’s ACM estimate of the US 10-year term premium fell from 0.790% at the start of the year to 0.455% in late June, then rose to 0.962% on 5 October, its highest since July 2014. Investors are asking for more to hold long bonds, beyond what they expect from policy rates.
France joins the list (updated 19 October)
Since this note was first published, France has become the euro area’s pressure point. Its 10-year yield closed at 4.79% on 16 October 2026, 137.4 basis points above Germany’s, after touching 4.994% intraday on 2 October, the highest since 2002 (Reuters via Boursorama).
| Date | France 10-year | Germany 10-year | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 September 2026 | 4.24% | 3.39% | 84.9 bp |
| 2 October 2026 | 4.90% | 3.43% | 146.9 bp |
| 16 October 2026 | 4.79% | 3.42% | 137.4 bp |
Source: ideal-investisseur daily table, compiled from Banque de France (TEC10) and Bundesbank data.
Italy’s 10-year was about 4.50% on 16 October, so France now borrows at a higher rate than Italy. The German figures in this table are benchmark closes, so they differ from the 3.55% in the first table, which is the Bundesbank’s fitted (Svensson) curve on 7 October.
France, Italy and Germany all sit under the same ECB deposit rate of 2.50%, so the widening is not about monetary policy. A large deficit, rising debt and a minority government facing its first budget vote on 20 October have added a France-specific premium on top of the global forces described above. For how French debt, yields and ratings compare with the Philippines’ own, see France now pays more than Italy to borrow.
How far are 10-year yields above policy rates?
| Market | Policy rate | 10-year | 10-year minus policy |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 3.75-4.00% | 5.28% | +1.28 points (to upper bound) |
| United Kingdom | 3.75% | 5.337% | +1.59 points |
| Germany (euro area deposit rate) | 2.50% | 3.55% | +1.05 points |
| Japan | 1.25% | 3.111% | +1.86 points |
| Philippines | 5.00% | 7.99% | +2.99 points |
Using the September monthly average instead of the 7 October close, the Philippine spread is +2.50 points. Either way it is the widest of the five. The United States, the euro area and Japan all raised rates in September 2026; the UK has held all year; the BSP has raised three times since April.
Where does the Philippines sit in this wave?
It rode it, and further than the four large markets in basis points. On a monthly basis, September 2026 (7.50%) ranks 28th of 235 months since March 2007, the highest since October 2018, and 151 basis points above December 2025.
| Measure | Philippines |
|---|---|
| 10-year, September 2026 average | 7.50% |
| Rank in March 2007 to September 2026 | 28th of 235 months |
| Change since December 2025 (monthly averages) | +151 bp |
| Change since 2 January 2026 (daily closes) | +193 bp |
| Lowest 2026 daily close | 5.92% (26 February, two days before the war began) |
| Inflation | 7.2% (September 2026) |
The Philippines shares the global drivers and adds its own. Inflation of 7.2% in September is more than double the latest US figure (3.4% in August). The BSP has raised its policy rate by 75 basis points since April, and analysts expect another increase on 22 October. The peso has fallen to record lows. In real terms the picture differs: after subtracting inflation, the Philippine 10-year in September was only about +0.30 points, while the US 10-year real yield (inflation-indexed) was about 2.9%.
Plan for higher rates and prices — the future need calculator estimates how much a future goal may cost under the inflation rate you choose.
Open the future need calculator →
What are the limits of this comparison?
Each country's yield comes from a different source: official curves for the US, UK, Germany and Japan, and ADB AsianBondsOnline closes with Bloomberg as the data source for the Philippines. Closing times differ, and the latest dates range from 6 to 7 October 2026. Changes in basis points favour markets that start from higher levels. The comparison of real yields mixes a past inflation rate for the Philippines with a market-traded inflation-indexed yield for the US, so it is indicative only.
- The France and Germany figures in the section updated on 19 October are benchmark closes compiled from Banque de France and Bundesbank data, dated 2 September to 16 October 2026, and are not directly comparable with the Bundesbank curve values in the first table.
Questions & answers
Why are bond yields rising worldwide in 2026?
Three reasons appear in the data: higher oil prices and inflation after the Iran war began in February, record government borrowing in Germany, Japan, the UK and the US, and a higher term premium, the extra return investors demand for holding long-term bonds.
Did the Philippine 10-year rise more than the US?
Yes, in basis points. From early January to 7 October 2026 the Philippine 10-year rose 193 basis points, against 109 for the US, 100 for Japan, 82 for the UK and 59 for Germany. The Philippines started from a higher level and also has the highest inflation in this group.
Is the Philippine 10-year at a record?
No. Its 7.99% close on 7 October 2026 is the highest since November 2018. The highest monthly average since 2007 was 9.64% in July 2008.
What does a high term premium mean?
It is the part of a long-term yield that is not explained by expected short-term rates. When it rises, investors want more compensation for the risk of holding long bonds, for example because of inflation uncertainty or heavy government borrowing.
Why is France the one under pressure within the euro area?
France, Italy and Germany share the ECB's 2.50% deposit rate, so the difference is a France-specific premium. A large deficit, rising debt and a minority government facing a budget vote on 20 October pushed the French 10-year to 4.79% on 16 October, 137 basis points above Germany and above Italy's roughly 4.50%.
Source
- US Department of the Treasury - Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates ↗
- Bank of England - Statistical Interactive Database (IUDMNPY) ↗
- Deutsche Bundesbank - Interest rates and yields ↗
- Ministry of Finance Japan - JGB interest rates ↗
- ADB AsianBondsOnline - Philippines (data: Bloomberg) ↗
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York - ACM term premia ↗
- The Edge Malaysia - Japan's bond issuance plan (Bloomberg report) ↗
- BusinessWorld - Yields on government debt mixed on growing inflation risks (4 October 2026) ↗
- BusinessWorld - BSP may deliver fourth straight rate hike amid mounting inflation risks (7 October 2026) ↗
- FRED - 10-year Treasury inflation-indexed security (DFII10) ↗
- CapsWindow - Data & methodology ↗
- ideal-investisseur - OAT-Bund spread, daily table (Banque de France and Bundesbank data) ↗
- Boursorama (Reuters) - OAT yield at its highest since 2002 ↗