Philippine 10-year bond yield at 7.50%: highest since 2018, 28th of 235 months
The Philippine 10-year government bond yield averaged 7.50% in September 2026 and closed at 7.99% on 7 October, the highest since late 2018. Where that sits in 235 months of data, what is left after 7.2% inflation, and what it means for borrowers and bondholders.
The Philippine 10-year government bond yield closed at 7.99% on 7 October 2026. On a monthly basis it averaged 7.50% in September, the highest month since October 2018. Here is how that compares with the full record available, and what it means once inflation and the BSP policy rate are taken into account.
How high is the Philippine 10-year yield now?
It averaged 7.50% in September 2026, and the latest daily close is 7.99% on 7 October. Both figures come from ADB AsianBondsOnline daily closes, with Bloomberg as the data source.
Philippine 10-year yield: September 2026 monthly average, then the 7 October 2026 daily close (ADB AsianBondsOnline, data: Bloomberg)
| Point in time | 10-year yield | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| December 2025 | 5.99% | monthly average |
| March 2026 | 6.68% | monthly average |
| May 2026 | 7.49% | monthly average |
| August 2026 | 7.30% | monthly average |
| September 2026 | 7.50% | monthly average |
| 5 October 2026 | 7.63% | daily close |
| 7 October 2026 | 7.99% | daily close |
The rise since December 2025 is 151 basis points. It came in two steps, March and May 2026, and the monthly average has stayed above 7.2% since. The last daily close higher than 7.99% was 8.02% on 7 November 2018.
The two-day move in October came as September inflation was released. The 10-year closed at 7.63% on 5 October, 7.81% on 6 October, when the Philippine Statistics Authority published September inflation of 7.2%, and 7.99% on 7 October. A Trading Economics market note attributed the rise to faster inflation and weaker demand at government debt auctions. This site holds no auction data, so the second point is reported here, not checked.
How does 7.50% rank in the record?
It is 28th of 235 months, counting from March 2007, when this daily series starts to carry non-zero values. About 88% of months had a lower average.
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample | March 2007 to September 2026, 235 months |
| Rank of September 2026 | 28th highest |
| Months with a lower average | 88.1% |
| Last month with a higher average | October 2018 (7.99%) |
| Highest month | July 2008 (9.64%) |
| Lowest month | August 2020 (2.71%) |
So 7.50% is high for this sample, but it is not extreme. Of the 27 months above it, 26 fall between April 2008 and June 2010, around the global financial crisis. The other one is October 2018, when consumer price inflation was also close to 7%.
Annual averages since 2007
Annual averages since 2007
Average 10-year yield
Shared linear scale from zero. Selected entries from the table below. Its dates, units, definitions and limitations still apply.
| Year | Average 10-year yield |
|---|---|
| 2007 (from March) | 7.08% |
| 2008 | 8.05% |
| 2010 | 7.12% |
| 2013 | 3.72% |
| 2016 | 3.99% |
| 2018 | 6.52% |
| 2020 | 3.47% |
| 2022 | 6.34% |
| 2024 | 6.24% |
| 2025 | 6.13% |
| 2026 (January to September) | 6.91% |
The low of the 2010s came in 2013 at 3.72%. The yield then returned to the 6% range in 2022 and stayed there for four years. The 2026 average so far is the highest annual figure since 2010.
What is left after inflation?
Very little in September. Consumer prices rose 7.2% in September 2026, up from 6.1% in August, matching April’s figure. Subtracting that from the September yield average leaves about +0.30 percentage points.
September 2026 10-year yield average (7.50%) minus September 2026 inflation (7.2%, PSA)
| Month | 10-year average | Inflation | Real yield |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 2025 | 5.99% | 1.80% | +4.19 points |
| March 2026 | 6.68% | 4.07% | +2.61 points |
| April 2026 | 6.71% | 7.23% | −0.52 points |
| July 2026 | 7.32% | 6.19% | +1.13 points |
| August 2026 | 7.30% | 6.1% | +1.20 points |
| September 2026 | 7.50% | 7.2% | +0.30 points |
Inflation for December 2025 to July 2026 is computed from the headline consumer price index held on this site (BIS-linked national series). August and September are the published PSA headline rates. Using the latest month on this site (July, 6.19%) against the September yield gives +1.31 points, the figure in our data packet; using September for both gives +0.30. In 2009 the real yield reached +6.06 points (August), and in September 2008 it fell to −2.55.
The nominal yield rose by 151 basis points this year, but inflation rose faster. The real yield has fallen from about +4 points in late 2025 to near zero.
What does it mean for borrowers, savers and bondholders?
The September 10-year average of 7.50% is 250 basis points above the BSP target reverse repurchase rate of 5.00%, which the BSP reached in August 2026 after 75 basis points of increases since April. The 2-year yield averaged 6.58% in September, 158 basis points above the policy rate.
A 2-year yield this far above the policy rate is consistent with markets expecting more increases. BusinessWorld reported that BMI, ING, Maybank, Nomura and UOB all expected a further 25 basis point increase. The next Monetary Board meetings are on 22 October and 17 December.
For each group the effect differs:
- Borrowers with loans that reprice off government yields or bank funding costs face higher rates when they reprice. Fixed-rate loans taken out in 2025 are not affected until they reset.
- Savers can lock in higher fixed rates on longer instruments than a year ago, but with 7.2% inflation the real return on most deposits is close to zero or below it.
- Existing bondholders have taken a price loss. As an illustration only: a new 10-year bond with a 6% semi-annual coupon, bought at par, would be worth about 89.6 per 100 if its yield moved straight to 7.50%, a fall of roughly 10%. Holding to maturity still returns the 6% coupon and full principal.
The yields on this page are ADB AsianBondsOnline closes with Bloomberg as the data source, averaged by month on this site. Official BSP or Bureau of the Treasury yield histories were not available to us, and individual benchmark bonds can differ by several basis points. Monthly averages and daily closes are not interchangeable: the October 2018 high was 7.99% as a monthly average but daily closes that month reached 8.32%. Real yields use past inflation, not expected inflation over the next ten years.
Plan with today's rates in mind — the future need calculator shows how much a target amount may require when prices keep rising at the rate you choose.
Questions & answers
Is 7.99% a record for the Philippine 10-year yield?
No. It is the highest daily close in this data since 7 November 2018 (8.02%). The 2018 daily peak was 8.32% on 22 October 2018, and the highest monthly average since 2007 is 9.64% in July 2008.
Why did the 10-year jump in early October 2026?
The 10-year closed at 7.63% on 5 October, 7.81% on 6 October and 7.99% on 7 October. September inflation of 7.2% was released on 6 October. A Trading Economics market note published on 8 October attributed the rise to faster inflation and weaker demand at government debt auctions. This site does not have auction data to check the second point.
Is a 7.50% yield a good real return?
It depends on inflation over the holding period, which is unknown. Against September inflation of 7.2% the real yield was about +0.30 points; against July inflation of 6.19% it was +1.31 points. In April 2026 it was below zero.
Where do these yields come from?
From ADB AsianBondsOnline daily 10-year and 2-year local currency government bond yields, with Bloomberg as the stated data source. This site averages the daily closes by month. Official BSP or Bureau of the Treasury yield histories were not available in machine-readable form.
Source
- ADB AsianBondsOnline - Philippines (10-year and 2-year LCY government bond yields; data: Bloomberg) ↗
- CapsWindow - Data & methodology ↗
- PSA - Summary inflation report, September 2026 ↗
- Philstar - Philippine inflation jumps to 7.2% in September 2026 (6 October 2026) ↗
- BusinessWorld - BSP may deliver fourth straight rate hike amid mounting inflation risks (7 October 2026) ↗
- Trading Economics via TradingView - Philippines 10Y bond yield hits 8-year high (8 October 2026) ↗
- BIS - Central bank policy rates ↗
- BIS - Long consumer prices database ↗