CPF interest rates vs inflation: did 4% and 2.5% beat prices and money supply over 10 years?

Most retirement funds publish an investment return. CPF works differently: the Board credits interest at rates set by rule, with floors guaranteed by the government. This note compounds those rates over 2016 to 2025 and compares them with Singapore’s consumer prices and money supply.

How much did CPF savings grow in 10 years?

On base interest alone, S$100,000 in the Special Account at the start of 2016 would have become about S$148,200 by the end of 2025, and the same amount in the Ordinary Account about S$128,000 (CapsWindow calculation).

CPF Special Account base interest compounded over 2016 to 2025, about 4.01% a year. Extra interest on the first balances is excluded, and the Q3 2025 rate is assumed at the 4% floor because the original release could not be confirmed. CapsWindow calculation

The OA rate was 2.5% throughout. For 2016 to 2022 the calculation uses the 4% floor: in August 2022 MOM said “the Government has maintained the floor rate of 4% for SMRA since 2008”, with the pegged rate then at 2.72% (MOM); CapsWindow did not check each quarter’s release for those years. As interest rates rose, the SA rate went above the floor in six quarters of 2023 and 2024: 4.01% and 4.04% in the second half of 2023 (CPF), then 4.08%, 4.05%, 4.08% and 4.14% through 2024 (CPF, CPF). The annual SA rate below is the simple average of the four quarters.

Visual guide

How much did CPF savings grow in 10 years?

Multiple

• Special Account (SA), base interest×1.4817
• Ordinary Account (OA)×1.2801
• Needed to keep up with consumer prices×1.2009

01.4817

Account	Rate over 2016–2025	S$100,000 becomes	Multiple
Special Account (SA), base interest	about 4.01% a year	S$148,167	×1.4817
Ordinary Account (OA)	2.5% a year	S$128,008	×1.2801
Needed to keep up with consumer prices	about 1.85% a year	S$120,091	×1.2009

Consumer prices use the headline CPI from December 2015 to December 2025. All multiples are CapsWindow calculations.

Did CPF interest beat inflation?

Yes, over the decade as a whole. After inflation, SA interest grew purchasing power by about 2.12% a year and OA interest by about 0.64% a year (CapsWindow calculation). The exception was the inflation spike of 2021 to 2023.

Year	CPI, December on December	SA rate	OA rate	SA after inflation	OA after inflation
2016	0.17%	4.00%	2.50%	3.83%	2.33%
2017	0.38%	4.00%	2.50%	3.61%	2.12%
2018	0.46%	4.00%	2.50%	3.52%	2.03%
2019	0.76%	4.00%	2.50%	3.21%	1.72%
2020	0.04%	4.00%	2.50%	3.96%	2.46%
2021	3.96%	4.00%	2.50%	0.03%	−1.41%
2022	6.47%	4.00%	2.50%	−2.32%	−3.73%
2023	3.75%	4.01%	2.50%	0.25%	−1.21%
2024	1.50%	4.09%	2.50%	2.55%	0.99%
2025	1.19%	4.00% (Q3 assumed)	2.50%	2.78%	1.30%

CPI is this site’s Singapore headline index (BIS-linked, 2010 = 100). Real rates divide one plus the interest rate by one plus inflation (CapsWindow calculation). SA interest fell short in one year, 2022; OA interest fell short in three, 2021 to 2023. On annual-average CPI, 2022 inflation was 6.13%.

How does it compare with money supply (M2)?

A full 10-year comparison is not possible. Singapore’s M2 series on this site starts in July 2021, when the definition changed with the removal of the DBU/ACU divide, and there is no earlier series spliced on. The longest clean comparison runs from December 2021 to December 2025.

December 2021 to December 2025	Multiple	Change
Singapore dollar M2	×1.1997	+19.97%
SA base interest	×1.1710	+17.10%
Consumer prices	×1.1345	+13.45%
OA interest	×1.1038	+10.38%

All are CapsWindow calculations from this site’s data. Over these four years both SA and OA balances grew more slowly than the stock of money, and OA interest also trailed consumer prices. Four years that include an inflation spike are a short window; they do not show how the full decade compares.

Is this the return in my own account?

Partly. These are base rates. Members also earn extra interest: under 55, 1% more on the first S$60,000 of combined balances (with at most S$20,000 from the OA); from 55, 2% more on the first S$30,000 and 1% more on the next S$30,000 (CPF). So a member with small balances earns more than the table shows, and a member whose money sits mostly in the OA earns less than the SA figures.

The floors matter. Without them, the OA rate pegged to banks’ three-month rates would be 0.32%, based on May to July 2026, and the SMRA rate pegged to the 12-month average of the 10-year Singapore Government Securities yield plus 1% would be 3.06% for August 2025 to July 2026 (CPF). In August 2022 MOM gave the pegged rates as 2.72% for SMRA and 0.09% for the OA.

Since 19 January 2025, members aged 55 and above no longer have a Special Account. For about 1.4 million members, SA savings moved to the Retirement Account up to their cohort’s Full Retirement Sum and kept earning the SMRA rate, while the remainder went to the OA, which earns 2.5%. The Enhanced Retirement Sum was raised from three to four times the Basic Retirement Sum, S$426,000 in 2025 (CPF).

What is changing in 2026?

On 22 September 2026 the government extended the 4% SMRA floor by a year, to 31 December 2027. For October to December 2026 the rates are 2.5% for the OA and 4% for SMRA (CPF). A year earlier, on 22 September 2025, it had extended the floor to the end of 2026 (CPF). From December 2025 to April 2026, the latest month in this site’s CPI series, consumer prices rose 0.19% (CapsWindow calculation).

A secondary summary by Beansprout, which CapsWindow has not checked against CPF or MOM originals, lists other 2026 changes. The monthly ordinary wage ceiling rose from S$7,400 to S$8,000 on 1 January 2026. Total contribution rates rose from 32.5% to 34% for ages 55 to 60 and from 23.5% to 25% for ages 60 to 65. For members turning 55 in 2026, the Full Retirement Sum is S$220,400 and the Enhanced Retirement Sum S$440,800. From 1 July 2026 the retirement age is 64 and the re-employment age 69.

How much could the difference be over 30 years?

This is an assumption-based illustration, not a forecast. Saving S$1,000 a month for 30 years means S$360,000 of contributions. Credited at the end of each month with monthly compounding, and ignoring extra interest and wage growth (CapsWindow calculation):

Assumed rate for all 30 years	Balance after 30 years	Multiple of contributions
4.01% (SA average, 2016–2025)	S$686,446	1.91
2.5% (OA rate)	S$532,842	1.48
2% (assumption)	S$491,263	1.36

If consumer prices kept rising at the past decade’s 1.85% a year, which is also only an assumption, S$686,446 in 30 years would buy about what S$396,000 buys today, and S$532,842 about what S$308,000 buys. To test your own target with different rates and inflation, use the future need calculator.

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