Notes · English

Singapore's current-account surplus is 17% of GDP. Why doesn't the Singapore dollar soar?

Singapore earned a current-account surplus of S$132.0 billion in 2025 and S$77.9 billion in the first half of 2026. The balance of payments shows most of it was invested abroad again, and the rest added to reserves under MAS's exchange-rate policy.

CapsWindowPublished: 29 September 2026

Exchange rateUSDBalance of paymentsCurrent account

Key takeaways

Singapore's current-account surplus was S$132.0 billion in 2025, equal to 16.7% of nominal GDP, and S$77.9 billion in the first half of 2026, or 18.5% of GDP (SingStat balance of payments M060171/M060181 and GDP M015651; ratios calculated).
Most of it was placed abroad again: the financial account showed a net outflow of S$96.4 billion in 2025, 73% of the surplus, led by residents' net purchases of foreign securities (S$123.8 billion), while reserve assets rose S$34.1 billion.
The Singapore dollar did firm, but gradually: its monthly average moved from S$1.3504 per US dollar in December 2024 to S$1.2907 in December 2025 and S$1.2763 in August 2026 (Federal Reserve H.10 via FRED).
MAS says the surplus reflects national saving above domestic investment, and that its exchange-rate-based policy aims at medium-term price stability and does not target the current account.

How big is Singapore’s current-account surplus?

Very large for its size. Singapore’s current account recorded a surplus of S$132.0 billion in 2025, equal to 16.7% of nominal GDP, and S$77.9 billion in the first half of 2026, 18.5% of GDP (SingStat M060181; M060171; GDP from M015651; ratios calculated). All figures are in Singapore dollars, on the balance-of-payments (BPM6) basis.

Visual guide

How big is Singapore’s current-account surplus?

Current account
2025
+132.0
1H 2025
+63.2
1H 2026
+77.9
Services balance
2025
+49.1
1H 2025
+24.2
1H 2026
+25.3
Primary income balance
2025
−133.4
1H 2025
−62.0
1H 2026
−69.8
Current account, % of GDP (calculated)
2025
16.7%
1H 2025
16.5%
1H 2026
18.5%

Selected entries from the table below. Its dates, units, definitions and limitations still apply.

Sources ↓

Item (S$ billion)	2025	1H 2025	1H 2026
Current account	+132.0	+63.2	+77.9
Goods balance	+230.4	+109.0	+129.4
Services balance	+49.1	+24.2	+25.3
Primary income balance	−133.4	−62.0	−69.8
Secondary income balance	−14.1	−8.0	−7.0
Current account, % of GDP (calculated)	16.7%	16.5%	18.5%

S$132.0 billion

Singapore's current-account surplus in 2025, 16.7% of nominal GDP (SingStat M060181 and M015651; ratio calculated)

Goods drive the surplus. Goods exports on the balance-of-payments basis were S$523.3 billion in the first half of 2026 against S$404.9 billion a year earlier. The large deficit on primary income is the other side of Singapore as a host economy: in 2025 it paid S$420.4 billion of investment income and wages to non-residents and received S$287.0 billion.

Did the Singapore dollar strengthen?

Yes, but gradually and with pauses. Between the first quarter of 2025 and the second quarter of 2026 the quarterly average moved from S$1.3475 to S$1.2795 per US dollar, a 5.0% fall in the rate, which means a firmer Singapore dollar (quarterly averages calculated from FRED EXSIUS).

Quarter	Current account (S$ bn)	% of GDP	Financial account, net outflow (S$ bn)	Change in reserve assets (S$ bn)	S$ per US$, quarterly average
1Q 2025	+32.7	17.2%	23.2	+7.9	1.3475
2Q 2025	+30.5	15.9%	14.1	+17.7	1.3001
3Q 2025	+28.5	14.4%	42.1	−12.9	1.2837
4Q 2025	+40.2	19.2%	16.9	+21.4	1.2962
1Q 2026	+40.8	20.0%	25.7	+16.9	1.2752
2Q 2026	+37.1	17.1%	27.9	+9.0	1.2795

The surplus stayed between 14% and 20% of GDP in every quarter, but the exchange rate did not move in step with it. In 3Q 2025, the one quarter in which the financial-account outflow (S$42.1 billion) exceeded the current-account surplus (S$28.5 billion), reserve assets fell by S$12.9 billion.

Where did the money go?

Mostly back out into foreign assets. In 2025 the financial account recorded a net outflow of S$96.4 billion, equal to 73% of the current-account surplus; errors and omissions were −S$1.4 billion, and the remaining S$34.1 billion appeared as an increase in reserve assets (SingStat M060181; shares calculated).

Financial account (S$ billion)	2025	1H 2026	What it means
Direct investment, assets	+123.2	+79.5	Singapore firms investing in companies abroad
Direct investment, liabilities	+208.0	+110.1	Foreign firms investing in Singapore (inflow)
Portfolio investment, assets	+123.8	+100.0	Residents buying foreign stocks and bonds
of which official sector	+60.8	+33.5	Public-sector purchases of foreign securities
of which banks	+23.1	+43.9	Banks’ purchases of foreign securities
of which other residents	+39.9	+22.6	Funds, insurers, firms and households
Portfolio investment, liabilities	+28.6	+11.5	Non-residents buying Singapore securities (inflow)
Other investment, net	+95.2	−3.9	Loans and deposits, mostly between banks
Financial account, net	+96.4	+53.6	Net money placed abroad
Reserve assets	+34.1	+26.0	Increase in official reserves

The sign convention matters here. SingStat notes that in the financial account a decrease in assets and liabilities, and net inflows in net balances, carry a minus sign (SingStat). A positive net figure is therefore money going out. Direct investment is the exception in this table: it was a net inflow (−S$84.8 billion net in 2025) because foreign firms put more into Singapore than Singapore firms put abroad.

The largest steady channel is portfolio investment. The United States is the biggest destination: at the end of 2025 Singapore’s portfolio investment assets in the US were S$1,187.4 billion, 39.0% of the S$3,041.0 billion total (SingStat M060291; share calculated). How those US holdings performed once converted back into Singapore dollars is covered in US stocks in Singapore dollars.

In the first half of 2026 the pattern shifted inside the financial account. Banks’ other investment assets rose S$116.6 billion while their liabilities rose S$168.3 billion, so other investment turned into a small net inflow (−S$3.9 billion), and portfolio outflows rose to S$88.5 billion net. Gross bank flows of this size are typical of a financial centre and largely offset each other.

Why doesn’t the surplus simply push the Singapore dollar up?

Because Singapore manages its exchange rate. MAS “implements monetary policy by undertaking foreign exchange operations to keep the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate within a policy band consistent with ensuring price stability” (MAS). The band has a slope that sets its rate of appreciation. In July 2026 MAS said it would “increase the rate of appreciation of the policy band very slightly”, after a slight increase in April, and that the S$NEER had stayed in the upper half of the band (MAS, July 2026).

MAS also explains the surplus itself. It says “Singapore’s current account surplus reflects a level of national saving that is higher than domestic investment”, discusses the Central Provident Fund, the fully funded scheme in which Singaporeans save for retirement, describes a “demographic-driven trajectory of the current account surplus”, and states that its “exchange rate-based monetary policy is directed at securing medium-term price stability. It does not target the current account” (MAS FAQ).

Read together, the tables suggest a simple division of labour. Most of the surplus is invested abroad by residents, including the official sector; GIC describes itself as one of three entities managing Singapore's reserves, alongside MAS and Temasek (GIC). What remains shows up as a change in reserve assets, and the exchange rate follows the appreciating path MAS sets rather than jumping with each quarter's surplus. This paragraph interprets the published figures; it does not measure MAS's market operations, which are not broken out in the balance of payments.

For how large those reserves are against Singapore’s external debt, see Singapore’s reserves and short-term external debt.

What to watch next

Three published numbers. First, the third-quarter 2026 balance of payments, which SingStat releases with the Economic Survey of Singapore; the second-quarter figures were updated on 11 August 2026, and the next date is on SingStat’s advance release calendar. Second, MAS’s next monetary policy statement, for any change to the slope, width or centre of the band. Third, Singapore’s net international investment position, the stock that years of these flows have built up: S$1,409.5 billion at the end of the first quarter of 2026 (SingStat). CapsWindow does not forecast exchange rates.

Limits of these figures

The 2026 quarters are preliminary and are revised in later releases. Goods figures here are on the balance-of-payments basis, which records change of ownership; SingStat’s monthly merchandise trade statistics are on a customs basis and are not used or mixed in this note. Net errors and omissions were small in these periods (−S$1.4 billion in 2025, +S$1.6 billion in the first half of 2026). Percentages of GDP are calculated from unadjusted quarterly nominal GDP. The exchange rate shown is the Singapore dollar against the US dollar only, one component of the trade-weighted S$NEER that MAS actually manages.

Compare the same amount on several bases →

Questions & answers

How large is Singapore's current-account surplus?

S$132.0 billion in 2025, or 16.7% of nominal GDP, and S$77.9 billion in the first half of 2026, or 18.5% of GDP. The ratios are calculated from SingStat's balance of payments and GDP at current market prices.

If Singapore earns so much, why hasn't the Singapore dollar risen much more?

Because most of the surplus is invested abroad again. In 2025 the financial account recorded a net outflow of S$96.4 billion, 73% of the surplus, and reserve assets rose S$34.1 billion. MAS manages the Singapore dollar within a policy band against a trade-weighted basket rather than letting it float freely, and it states that the policy targets medium-term price stability, not the current account.

Who invests Singapore's surplus abroad?

Many parties. In 2025 residents' net purchases of foreign securities were S$123.8 billion, of which the official sector accounted for S$60.8 billion, banks S$23.1 billion and other residents S$39.9 billion. GIC describes itself as one of three entities that manage Singapore's reserves, alongside MAS and Temasek.

Why does Singapore have a large primary income deficit?

Primary income records investment income and compensation of employees. In 2025 payments to non-residents were S$420.4 billion against receipts of S$287.0 billion, a deficit of S$133.4 billion. Singapore hosts a large amount of foreign direct investment, and direct investment liabilities rose by S$208.0 billion in 2025 alone.

Source

Calculators

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