S&P 500 returns in Singapore dollars: how much did the stronger SGD take off in 2026?
The S&P 500 rose 20.3% in US dollars in the year to August 2026 but 19.5% in Singapore dollars, because the rate fell from S$1.2847 to S$1.2763 per US dollar. The formula, a S$10,000 example, timing, withholding tax and hedging.
How much did the Singapore dollar move against the US dollar?
Not much, and in the Singapore dollar’s favour. The monthly average went from S$1.2847 per US dollar in August 2025 to S$1.2763 in August 2026, a change of −0.7%, meaning the Singapore dollar firmed slightly (FRED EXSIUS, Federal Reserve H.10). Rates in this note are Singapore dollars per US dollar, so a lower number is a stronger Singapore dollar.
| Reference point | S$ per US$ | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| August 2025 | 1.2847 | Monthly average |
| December 2025 | 1.2907 | Monthly average |
| February 2026 (strongest month of 2026) | 1.2664 | Monthly average |
| July 2026 (weakest month of 2026) | 1.2908 | Monthly average |
| August 2026 | 1.2763 | Monthly average |
| 11 February 2026 (strongest day) | 1.2616 | Daily noon rate |
| 24 June 2026 (weakest day) | 1.2977 | Daily noon rate |
| 25 September 2026 (latest) | 1.2771 | Daily noon rate |
Daily rates are Federal Reserve noon buying rates in New York (FRED DEXSIUS). The whole 2026 range, from 1.2616 to 1.2977, is under 3%. That narrow band is typical for this currency: MAS manages the Singapore dollar against a trade-weighted basket, and in July it said the S$NEER “has stayed in the upper half of the appreciating policy band” (MAS, July 2026). The US-dollar rate used here is one part of that basket, not the policy target itself.
How much did US stocks return in Singapore dollars?
Slightly less than in US dollars. Over the year to August 2026, the S&P 500 rose 20.3% in US dollars and 19.5% in Singapore dollars, comparing monthly averages of daily closes (FRED SP500; FRED NASDAQ100; calculated).
How much did US stocks return in Singapore dollars?
Return in S$
Shared linear scale from zero. Selected entries from the table below. Its dates, units, definitions and limitations still apply.
| Index and period | Return in US$ | S$ per US$ change | Return in S$ |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500, Aug 2025 → Aug 2026 | +20.3% | −0.7% | +19.5% |
| S&P 500, Dec 2025 → Aug 2026 | +12.5% | −1.1% | +11.3% |
| Nasdaq-100, Aug 2025 → Aug 2026 | +25.8% | −0.7% | +24.9% |
| Nasdaq-100, Dec 2025 → Aug 2026 | +16.0% | −1.1% | +14.7% |
S&P 500, August 2025 to August 2026 monthly averages, in US dollars and in Singapore dollars (FRED SP500, EXSIUS; calculated)
On daily closes the picture is the same. From 25 September 2025 to 25 September 2026 the S&P 500 rose 17.2% in US dollars and 15.8% in Singapore dollars, as the rate moved from 1.2934 to 1.2771 (−1.3%). From 31 December 2025, the year-to-date return was 13.1% in US dollars and 12.3% in Singapore dollars.
How do you convert a US-dollar return into Singapore dollars?
Multiply the two growth factors and subtract one:
SGD return = (1 + USD return) × (1 + change in S$ per US$) − 1
For the S&P 500 over the year to August 2026: 1.203 × 0.993 − 1 = +19.5%. When the Singapore dollar strengthens, the second factor is below 1 and trims the result; when it weakens, the factor is above 1 and adds to it.
A worked example with S$10,000, ignoring fees, FX spreads, dividends and taxes (calculated from the table figures):
| Step | Amount |
|---|---|
| Convert S$10,000 at 1.2847 (Aug 2025 average) | US$7,784 |
| S&P 500 +20.3% in US dollars | US$9,366 |
| Convert back at 1.2763 (Aug 2026 average) | S$11,953 |
| Same result if the rate had not moved | S$12,032 |
| Currency effect | about −S$79 |
The same S$10,000 in the Nasdaq-100 would have become about S$12,493 on the same basis.
Did it matter when you bought?
Yes, more than the full-year number suggests. Someone who bought on 24 June 2026, when the Singapore dollar was at its weakest daily level of the year (S$1.2977), saw the S&P 500 rise 5.2% in US dollars by 25 September but only 3.6% in Singapore dollars, because the rate then moved to 1.2771 (−1.6%) (FRED DEXSIUS; calculated).
| Entry date (S$ per US$) | Index | Return in US$ | Return in S$ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jun 2026, weakest SGD (1.2977) | S&P 500 | +5.2% | +3.6% |
| 24 Jun 2026, weakest SGD (1.2977) | Nasdaq-100 | +4.8% | +3.1% |
| 11 Feb 2026, strongest SGD (1.2616) | S&P 500 | +11.6% | +12.9% |
| 11 Feb 2026, strongest SGD (1.2616) | Nasdaq-100 | +21.5% | +22.9% |
Buying US dollars when the Singapore dollar was strong in February helped; buying when it was weak in June cost about 1.6 percentage points. Nobody knows in advance which day will turn out to be the extreme, and CapsWindow does not forecast exchange rates.
How do Singapore investors actually hold US stocks, and what does tax change?
Collectively, heavily. At the end of 2025, Singapore residents held S$1,187.4 billion of US portfolio investment assets, 39.0% of the S$3,041.0 billion total; US equity and investment fund shares alone were S$683.9 billion (SingStat M060291; share calculated). These totals cover all residents, including banks, funds and official investors, not only individuals.
For an individual buying US-listed shares or ETFs, the bigger recurring cost is often tax on dividends, not currency. The US generally withholds 30% on US-source income such as dividends paid to foreign persons unless a treaty lowers the rate (IRS), and Singapore does not appear on the IRS list of US income tax treaty partners (IRS treaty list). In Singapore, IRAS lists foreign dividends received by resident individuals, other than through a partnership, as not taxable (IRAS), so the US withholding is the main tax layer.
Some investors look at funds domiciled in US treaty countries instead. The IRS treaty table lists a general 15% rate on US dividends paid to residents of Ireland (IRS Table 1); whether a particular fund qualifies, and what it charges, depends on the fund.
The index returns in this note are price returns without dividends. Dividends and their withholding tax change the total return of a real holding, and neither is included in the tables or the S$10,000 example.
Hedged or unhedged: what does a currency hedge cost?
Roughly the interest-rate gap. A fund that hedges US-dollar exposure back to Singapore dollars gives up approximately the difference between US and Singapore short-term rates. The Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75–4.00% on 16 September 2026 (Federal Reserve), while 3-month compounded SORA stood at 1.1863% at the end of August 2026 (SingStat M700071). That is a gap of about 2.6 to 2.8 percentage points a year at current rates.
Set against the past year, that approximate cost is larger than the 0.7% the stronger Singapore dollar took off the S&P 500 return. This is not a backtest: rates over the past twelve months were different, and actual hedge costs depend on forward prices and fund fees. It only shows why an SGD-hedged share class does not simply equal the US-dollar return.
Who else is affected by a firmer Singapore dollar?
Anyone who converts between the two currencies. A stronger Singapore dollar lowers the local cost of US-dollar-priced imports and of travel to the United States, and reduces the Singapore-dollar value of exporters’ US-dollar receipts. MAS said in July that the S$NEER appreciation of recent quarters, together with its April tightening, “has contributed to a dampening of inflationary pressures” (MAS, July 2026). For where Singapore’s US dollars come from and where they go, see Singapore’s trade surplus and where the money goes.
What these numbers leave out
The main tables compare monthly averages, not month-end or daily rates; the daily figures are shown separately and give different answers. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 series are price indices without dividends. FX spreads, platform and fund fees, and taxes are excluded. Past currency moves say nothing about the next twelve months, and this site does not forecast exchange rates. For how far the Singapore dollar has moved in past stress episodes, see How far did the Singapore dollar fall in each crisis.
Questions & answers
Why is my S&P 500 return in Singapore dollars lower than the index return?
Because the Singapore dollar strengthened against the US dollar. From the August 2025 to the August 2026 monthly average the rate moved from S$1.2847 to S$1.2763 per US dollar (−0.7%), so each US dollar of gains converted into slightly fewer Singapore dollars. The S&P 500 rose 20.3% in US dollars and 19.5% in Singapore dollars on that basis.
How do I convert a US-dollar return into a Singapore-dollar return?
Multiply the growth factors: SGD return = (1 + USD return) × (1 + change in SGD per USD) − 1. For the year to August 2026, 1.203 × 0.993 − 1 = +19.5%. Fees, spreads, dividends and taxes are not included.
Do Singapore residents pay tax on US dividends?
The US generally withholds 30% on dividends paid to foreign persons unless a treaty lowers the rate, and Singapore is not on the IRS list of US income tax treaty partners. On the Singapore side, IRAS lists foreign dividends received by resident individuals (other than through a partnership) as not taxable.
Would a hedged S&P 500 fund have done better?
Not necessarily. A hedge removes most of the currency effect, but it costs roughly the gap between US and Singapore short-term rates. With the US federal funds target at 3.75–4.00% after 16 September 2026 and 3-month compounded SORA at 1.1863% at the end of August 2026, that gap is about 2.6 to 2.8 percentage points a year — larger than the 0.7% the SGD took off over the past year. This is an approximation, not advice.
Source
- CapsWindow · Data & methodology ↗
- FRED · S&P 500 (SP500), daily close ↗
- FRED · Nasdaq-100 Index (NASDAQ100), daily close ↗
- FRED · Singapore dollars to one US dollar, monthly average (EXSIUS, Federal Reserve H.10) ↗
- FRED · Singapore dollars to one US dollar, daily noon buying rate (DEXSIUS) ↗
- MAS · Monetary Policy Statement, 27 July 2026 ↗
- Federal Reserve · FOMC statement, 16 September 2026 ↗
- SingStat · Current banks interest rates, 3-month compounded SORA (M700071) ↗
- IRS · NRA withholding (30% on US-source income) ↗
- IRS · United States income tax treaties, A to Z ↗
- IRS · Tax treaty Table 1, rates on dividends ↗
- IRAS · Dividends: what is taxable and what is not ↗
- SingStat · Portfolio investment assets by destination economy and instrument (M060291) ↗